Euro 2024 outright tips, predictions, best bets and preview
- Sporting Life tipped the winners of Euro 2020 (Italy 11/1), with Jake tipping the winners of the last two major international tournaments - 2022 World Cup (Argentina 7/1) and AFCON 2023 (Ivory Coast 7/1)
- Jake finished the 23/24 season +69.7pts in profit
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 outright
4pts e.w Portugal to win Euro 2024 at 8/1 (General 1/2, 1-2)
0.5pt e.w Switzerland to win Euro 2024 at 80/1 (General 1/2, 1,2)
0.5pt e.w Austria to win Euro 2024 at 80/1 (General 1/2, 1,2)
Is there anything better than a summer with a major international tournament? The winter World Cup was unusual, and while it was thoroughly entertaining, I'm over the moon that we return to the usual June-July slot for Euro 2024.
Italy are the reigning champions after they beat England at Wembley in 2021, but it's the Three Lions that head the betting in Germany, followed by 2022 World Cup runners-up France.
Can England win Euro 2024?
I wouldn't be at all shocked if England were to win a first major trophy since 1966, but from a betting perspective they are not attractive at all. They look way too short for my liking.
Yes, Gareth Southgate has arguably the most talented group of his tenure, but in my mind it is the manager himself who provides me with most doubt.
His in-game tactical tweaks and sometimes questionable set-ups are a worry, as is the fact that if everything goes to plan then England would face France in the semi-finals - the side that beat them at the last World Cup.
Didier Deschamps' side should be the favourites in my book. They have the pedigree, winning the 2018 World Cup, and appear a good match for England, but again, they look a tad short.
Euro 2024 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- England - 3/1
- France - 4/1
- Germany - 9/2
- Portugal - 8/1
- Spain - 8/1
- Italy - 14/1
- Netherlands - 18/1
- Belgium - 20/1
- 40/1 bar
Odds correct at 1600 (06/06/24)
Swerve the hosts
Host nation Germany are the third favourites and their price has been getting shorter for quite some time.
I can't get my head around why they are around the 5/1 mark. They've shown very little to suggest they are ready to compete against Europe's best.
Plus, they haven't played a competitive game for over a year. It's a lot to ask of them to just flick a switch and it all to click. History is against them too, with only three host nations winning the Euros in the 16 stagings of the event, the last being France in 1984.
Spain and Portugal come next in the betting, and while the Spaniards did tempt me with a squad that looks well rounded with a good blend of youth and experience, plus recent silverware (2023 Nations League, if you count it) they find themselves in the 'group of death' alongside Italy and Croatia.
Punt on Portugal
Should Spain fail to win their group, it's highly likely that they will fall into the side of the draw with England and France, so at the same price PORTUGAL look a better bet TO WIN THE EUROS.
Their squad is simply stacked.
They have two quality players for every position which only England and France can rival, and the 2016 winners have looked excellent under new manager Roberto Martinez.
Portugal were the most dominant team in qualifying, topping the charts for all major metrics. Their group wasn't tough, but they dismantled their opponents in style.
The two question marks everyone has around the Portuguese are: the manager and international football's record goalscorer Cristiano Ronaldo.
Martinez masterclass?
Martinez has an unfair reputation as being a failure in international management. In my opinion he excelled at Belgium. He had a top heavy side and was forced to play a 3-4-3 formation to cover up defensive cracks.
They finished third in the 2018 World Cup, losing in the semi-finals to eventual champions France, and were eliminated by eventual winners Italy in the quarter-finals of Euro 2020. By the 2022 World Cup his Belgian squad was at the end of its cycle.
Martinez is a better manager than he is given credit for, and as well as Portugal having an incredible pool of players to choose from, the new manager also brings a tactical flexibility which is hugely important in tournament football - keeping your opponent guessing and being fluid with in-game changes.
When it comes to Ronaldo, it's debatable whether Portugal are better with or without him, but you can't leave out a goalscorer like him, and I fully trust Martinez to continue to use a system that gets the best out of all his players.
After all, CR7 scored 10 goals in qualifying, a record bettered only by Romelu Lukaku (14).
Finally, Portugal's group - alongside Czechia, Turkey and Georgia - is the easiest of all according to FIFA World Rankings, so should see them qualify as winners, meaning they'll likely avoid England and France until the final.
A third-placed team will await in the round of 16 followed by a group runner-up in the quarters means a deep run is very realistic.
I fully expected the 2016 winners to be the third favourites to win the tournament, so rate them a cracking bet at the prices available.
Any other challengers?
Reigning champions Italy come next in the betting at 18/1 in places, the same price as the Netherlands.
The former find themselves in the midst of a transition, and that, coupled with being in 'the group of death' is enough for them to be overlooked. I have trust issues in attack when it comes the latter, they just don't have anyone that puts the fear into opponents.
That's not the case for Belgium, who are 16/1 generally but a huge 20/1 with Sky Bet.
They possess a frightening front line, with Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, Jeremy Doku and Leandro Trossard, but their defence remains questionable, and the fact that new manager Domenico Tedesco hasn't included fit again Real Madrid keeper Thibaut Courtois seems like a major own goal.
Belgium were shaky at the back anyhow, so not having arguably the best goalkeeper in the world between the sticks is a concern, so too is the fact if everything goes according to plan, they will have to play both France and England to reach the final.
Who are the Euro 2024 dark horses?
Those are all the teams 20/1 and shorter, with a big jump in the market to the next tier of teams, starting at 40/1 with Croatia and Denmark.
The Croats will be on many people's list as a dark horse contender given their recent tournament record, but all of their excellent finishes have been in the World Cup, finishing second and third in the last two.
Since the Euros expanded to 24 teams they are yet to make it past the round of 16, likely due to the tougher draw in the opening knockout round.
Croatia have faced Denmark and Japan in the round of 16 in their two World Cup runs, allowing them to build up a head of steam, but were halted by Portugal and Spain at the same stage in their most recent Euro outings.
Being in the 'group of death' in this edition, the chances are Croatia again face an elite side early in the knockouts, so while at first glance they look a big price, that's probably about right.
The same goes for Denmark, who had a good Euro 2020 but a shocking 2022 World Cup.
Back Das Team
I'm going a bit bigger for my final two selections, both at 80/1, starting with AUSTRIA TO WIN THE EUROS.
What do you want from a dark horse? Well in my mind, I want a capable TEAM without any superstars as opposed to a standout individual with no help - I'm looking at you Poland.
Well, Austria have just that. They are more than the sum of their parts and are more than capable of causing a surprise. Ralf Rangnick is the man in charge and he has overseen an incredible turnaround, making them a very dangerous opponent.
Wreck-it Ralf
They took Belgium all the way in qualifying, impressing on the underlying numbers in the process (2.01 xGF, 0.85 xGA per game) and have beaten Italy and Germany in recent international breaks.
The only reason they are available at 80/1 instead of 50/1 is the tough group they have been drawn in alongside France, the Netherlands and Poland.
While the chances of them topping the group are small, I fully expect them to qualify, and with them being an awkward match-up for anyone in the knockout rounds, they could outrun their odds.
It does seem unlikely we get a winner of Euro 2024 at odds as big as 80/1, but you just never know; Greece were the same price when they won it back in 2004.
If the big price each-way doesn't appeal, you can back them at 3/1 to reach the quarter-finals and 8/1 to reach the semi-finals.
Turkey are the perennial dark horses in major tournaments, and while I like the shape of their squad heading to Germany, especially with the addition of the uber talented Arda Guler, the fact they were slapped by Austria 6-1 recently is enough to dissuade me.
Swiss surprise
Instead, it's SWITZERLAND that get the next vote TO WIN THE EUROS.
On paper, this looks like a daft shout, after all, Switzerland's record in qualifying was poor in a poor group (W4 D5 L1).
But, dig a little deeper and we see that their underlying data through qualifying was excellent. Only Portugal and France had a better xG process than the Swiss (2.36 xGF, 0.63 xGA per game) with those figures highlighting how they created an abundance of chances and limited their opponents well.
So why did they finish second behind Romania in qualifying? Unsustainably bad goalkeeping was a huge contributing factor, something we very rarely see from Yann Sommer. He conceded nine goals from on target chances equating to just 5.2 xG, conceding nearly four more than we would expect.
A Sommer bounce back
Now, there is simply no reason for us to believe that that run was anything but a blip. Sommer has been excellent for years now, and for his club side Inter this season has overperformed, saving six goals more than expected (19 conceded, on target xG faced of 25.5).
Somewhere in between the two levels is all we would need from Sommer to make Switzerland a real headache once again at a major tournament.
They have a lovely balance to their XI and like Austria are a well-functioning team. Murat Yakin has a blend of experience and youth at his disposal too, plus the majority of this group got over their Euros hump three years ago.
Prior to the 2020 edition, the Swiss had never gone beyond the round of 16, but they claimed the biggest of scalps when knocking out then-reigning world champions France, before taking Spain all the way to penalties in the quarters.
They could be dangerous again, and one thing is for sure, when it gets to the knockout rounds, not many teams will want to play the Swiss.
Like with the Austria selection, if you don't want to take the big price for them to win the tournament, you can back them at 3/1 to reach the quarters and 12/1 to reach the semis.
Any triple-figure prices appeal?
After Turkey-Austria-Switzerland at 80/1 generally, we jump into triple figures, and unfortunately, no teams at the price made much appeal, with it being Ukraine that were closest to making the staking plan.
They are a good side full of quality, with a very strong spine of Real Madrid keeper Andriy Lunin, Bournemouth centre-back Illia Zabarnyi, Arsenal midfielder Oleksandr Zinchenko and La Liga Pachichi (top scorer) winner Artem Dovbyk.
Ukraine are more than capable of causing a shock, but Austria and Switzerland feel more trustworthy.
Though at big prices, we really are hoping for a minor miracle.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (04/06/24)
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