Euro 2024 Notebook: Spain's flexibility, France's defence and Netherlands' impact
Cancel the Friday plans, we've got some football to watch.
The 'loaded' side of the bracket has delivered the desired outcome with Germany meeting Spain in Stuttgart before France face Portugal in Hamburg.
Of course, the four teams on the other side deserve some attention too - and I did spend my Monday putting together a one-off England Notebook to discuss their current problems - but you can understand why most people are drawn to Friday's offering.
Even with that England focus, I did find myself with a few thoughts on the other sides still involved so quickly scribbled them together before the quarter-finals get underway.
A bit shorter than usual, but it is a 'notebook' after all.
The effective right side
Let's start on that 'other' (I won't use 'lesser') side of the bracket.
The Netherlands have the most preferable opponent of all four ties taking place this weekend, with outsiders Turkey standing in their way of a spot in the semi-finals.
Left winger Cody Gakpo is now favourite to win the Golden Boot yet they have been effective in creating down their opposite flank.
A total of 42% of their attacks have been made down the right and there is a likelihood that continues despite Ronald Koeman changing the personnel in the attacking position.
Denzel Dumfries' attacking intent from right-back will be a big reason behind it as Nathan Ake - as much as he has been contributing going forward - remains a centre-back by trade.
Prices of 5/1 and 11/2 are available on Dumfries registering an assist in this game which looks good value when we factor in the fact they are clear favourites - he created two chances in each of the outings against Poland and Romania.
Gakpo's creativity
As mentioned above, Gakpo's direct impact in front of goal sees him joint-leading the scoring charts and the Netherlands' fixture against Turkey now places him as favourite in that market.
But he has been a huge creative force throughout the tournament too.
No Netherlands player has created more chances (11) across their four games so far and yet he only has one assist on his tally - that coming last time out. It really should have been more.
Perhaps it's the confidence he displays when featuring for his national side which has been lacking for Liverpool. He's clearly enjoying his football when on international duty.
Donyell Malen doubles their lead!
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) July 2, 2024
The Netherlands are heading into the quarter-finals 🔜 #BBCEuros #Euro2024 #ROUNED pic.twitter.com/4IjGvPx8Gn
There's more of a fearlessness in his play, as demonstrated by solo assist, where he continued to chase down the ball on the line before cutting back to a teammate.
A best price of 4/1 is available that he registers an assist in a game they're expected to win.
Spain's flexibility a big positive
Spain have been one of maybe three, at most, teams who have been consistently good throughout the tournament. After all, they've won every game so far.
What has been particularly impressive is their flexibility based on the opposition while sticking with their core way of playing.
We saw this against Georgia, where an adjustment was made to battle the low block they expected to face.
It left them vulnerable to the counter - their opposition made the most of that - but operating with six forwards in possession helped them score four times.
We're unlikely to see the same approach when they face Germany but it is something that suggests they are more than equipped to go the distance on the tougher side of the draw.
The Pedri problem
The headline suggests that Pedri has been a weak point in this Spain squad - that is far from the case - but he has been a problem in terms of the betting.
Why? He's failed to still be on the pitch at the hour mark in two of his three appearances at the tournament so far. When Luis de la Fuente is looking to freshen things up, Pedri is usually the first to move.
In all three games, Pedri was the first player brought off - two of those occasions saw Dani Olmo as his replacement.
It's annoying because he's created at least three chances in each of those games with an assist coming in the win over Croatia. He's also taken at least two shots in the games against Georgia and Italy.
You get good odds for him to have some goal involvement - 7/1 is available for an assist on Friday night - but he's a player I'm now avoiding in my betting because he doesn't get that final half an hour.
Deschamps-ball in full flow
The later contest on Friday is eye-catching in terms of the names involved but it has all the potential of being one where very little happens.
Well done me for jinxing this into becoming brilliant and I'd love that to be the case but France have barely been troubled defensively throughout the tournament.
They've conceded the lowest non-penalty expected goals tally by far - averaging 0.46 per match to Spain's 0.62 who are the next best - while the average of four shots against from inside the box per game is also the joint-lowest of all 24 teams.
They face a Portugal side so desperate to try and give Cristiano Ronaldo a goal they are harming their chances of winning the tournament. That approach against this France defence only makes things worse.
The odds are already expected a low-scoring game - 8/15 the best price on under 2.5 goals - but you can still get around 6/4 on France keeping a clean sheet for the fourth time this summer.
Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life
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