Euro 2024 Notebook: Netherlands system change, staying onside and going for goals
The round of 16 begins this weekend after a group stage which was nothing short of remarkable.
For all the complaints about the third-place structure, some of which are justified if we're honest, it has given us some absolutely incredible moments.
Hungary's late goal against Scotland, which looked good enough at the time, Italy's last gasp equaliser vs Croatia and Georgia's shock victory over Portugal have set up an intriguing looking knockout stage.
And as has been the case in recent tournaments, it looks made for England to go deep, but more on that shortly.
One stacked side of the draw means we'll lose some big hitters at an earlier stage than we expected, while we could well see a surprise package in the final given the potential routes.
Austria and Romania were shock winners, while Croatia were sent home after just three games. You'll have done well to land any early outright bets surrounding that group stage.
Here are some things to consider as the knockouts get underway.
Are England now the bet?
England's tournament has been dull but ultimately effective, topping Group C and setting up a round of 16 tie with Slovakia.
Even by the Three Lions' recent tournament luck standards, this is quite remarkable. They now avoid Belgium, France, Germany, Portugal and Spain until potentially facing one of them in the final should they get there.
Gareth Southgate's side have barely been troubled in defence in their three games so far and the underlying numbers back up what we have been seeing.
Dull but barely troubled defensively across the three games. Could bore our way to glory in Berlin. #Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/VzMeObNMc4
— Tom Carnduff (@TomCarnduff) June 25, 2024
The public's unhappiness surrounding their attacking output has perhaps drawn attention away from this, but tournament football favours those with good defensive structures.
England's 1.15 xGA (expected goals against - a metric valuing the quality of chances a team concedes) is the lowest of all 24 teams and by a good distance too, with Germany next up with 1.80.
Prices of 7/2 are available across the board that England go the distance, and considering the way the draw has now played out, they have every chance.
Keep with Kimmich
A note on Germany, and Joshua Kimmich is worth following in the assists markets considering how much he's created across the three games so far.
The right-back registered an assist in their opening win over Scotland and has created nine chances in total.
Taking set-pieces usually helps, yet all nine of those chances have come from open play. Three of those were passes into the area with the other finding Florian Wirtz just outside it for the opening goal of the tournament.
Florian Wirtz carries his club form into #Euro2024! 🔥
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) June 14, 2024
It's a fantastic finish for the first goal of the tournament ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/efafEgEkYs
You can still get 33/1 on Kimmich registering the most assists which could be decent enough value. I'd expect Germany to have at least two more games to play.
The man of the moment
When considering what could potentially happen at this tournament a few weeks ago, I didn't expect to reach this stage and be doing a section on Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili.
He has been absolutely incredible though.
His 21 saves across the three games is the most of any goalkeeper by far and he is a massive reason behind his country having their spot in the round of 16 in their debut tournament.
They face Spain in the next round - another game where he's expected to be very busy.
Mamardashvili returned five saves against Portugal, six against Turkey and a huge ten against Czechia, so it will be worth investigating his saves lines in the betting markets.
Without him, Georgia would have finished bottom of their group.
Some value in Switzerland
Switzerland's unbeaten campaign led to them finishing as runners-up in Group A and they will face Italy - the runners-up of Group B - in the round of 16.
Goals were a feature of their three group games but so were offsides, with Switzerland's total of nine the most in the tournament so far.
Dan Ndoye, Ruben Vargas and Silvan Widmer all have two each - they will be the players to target in this market in their next match.
Keep an eye on the team offsides line too. If 3+ is available at odds-against, it's certainly worth backing based on what we've seen so far.
Staying on that topic...
Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo is also one to target in the offsides market.
One constant throughout the group stage - alongside Ronaldo moaning about absolutely everything - is how often he'd go too early with any attempted through balls to him.
Ronaldo's total of five offsides is the most of any player at the tournament, and it's particularly encouraging in the betting that they were in a group that contained Czechia, Georgia and Turkey.
With Slovenia next up, there may be some good prices available on two or more as his desperation for a goal continues.
Corners in focus
We've started to see the style of play that teams have fully settled on in the tournament (mostly) and that has given us a good indication of where the corners are coming from.
When it comes to the round of 16, Germany's tie with Denmark is the one to look at for the count hitting double figures.
Across the group stages, Germany took the most corners while Denmark sat third. That is no surprise when we consider how much they look to utilise their width.
Julian Nagelsmann's home nation sit second to Portugal for total crosses attempted and Denmark are fifth. Not only do their styles give hope to this winning but so too does the game state.
One team leading should lead to more corners for the team chasing. It's well worth checking the prices when bookmakers fully release them.
Back to the back three?
Add the Netherlands to that group of 'high profile nations whose fans aren't particularly happy'.
They progressed, somehow, in third from Group D but still managed to end up with a decent enough tie against a Romania side who have been good fun at the tournament.
A day after their defeat to Austria, Ronald Koeman's side - made up of those on the bench in that contest - beat German 4th tier outfit TSV Havelse 6-1.
Beyond the scorers, we don't know too much about the game itself. I do wonder though if Koeman has opted to switch to the back-three system we saw in qualifying.
Micky van de Ven scored twice while Jeremie Frimpong got one - the potential wing-backs on the day?
This could mean a move back into the side for Wout Weghorst, with Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons operating behind but with the licence to drift out wide.
If you want to buy into the theory, Weghorst - who has one goal - is still 66/1 with Sky Bet to win the Golden Boot as he currently trails by two. Let the Big Man Summer™️ continue.
The high scorer?
Austria's meeting with Turkey in the round of 16 has a great chance of being a high scorer - the entertaining tie for the neutral.
Why? Austria have earned plaudits for their attacking intent, rightly so, but I have doubts about their defensive structure and what this means for their chances of going the distance.
Both of these sides sat in the top-five for most xGA conceded in the group stages, and Turkey's 5.1 xG created put them fifth in this metric, too.
They do have a couple of players unavailable for this game, but it still has all the potential for the overs line to land - with 19/20 available on 2.5 and 12/5 on 3.5.
Austria's price has been cut to win the whole thing, as you'd expect, but I need to see more from them at the back to really have any interest.
And on that note...
Belgium's lacklustre showings in front of goal means that the line has been set fairly low for their round of 16 blockbuster with France.
They are 4/1 outsiders, but over 2.5 goals can be backed at 13/10 across the board. That may be value when we factor in France's profile.
Didier Deschamps' side saw their two goals in the group stage come from a penalty and an own goal, yet they created far more than that across the three games.
In terms of the quality of chances - relying a bit on the xG data here - France sat second to a Croatia side who saw two spot kicks awarded. For non-penalty xG, France are third.
Belgium did also sit seventh in this metric too, so it could actually play out as a far more attacking game than we, or the odds, might expect.
Odds correct at 1315 BST (27/06/24)
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