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Euro 2024 Notebook: Bukayo Saka's role, Spain's set-piece defending and shots from distance
I'm thankful that the return of club football is just around the corner.
Does this mean I've hated this tournament? Absolutely not, the opposite actually. I've watched so much of it that I was worried how I'd cope with the withdrawal from my daily routine.
God bless the iPlayer for putting up the full match replays. It's been great to go back and watch key moments but to also have the ability to really investigate why something happened.
I'm hoping Sunday delivers an outcome that will make me want to watch it on repeat. Gareth Southgate's England side - so cruelly denied on penalties in the final of the last edition - look to finally end the long wait for success as they face Spain.
It goes without saying that their opponents will be their toughest test by far. Not only due to it being the final but the fact they have been the best team at the tournament.
This edition of my Euros Notebook column will focus on four points of interest to me, where this game could potentially be won and lost.
Back to the future?
In the first two tournaments under Southgate's guidance, particularly in 2018, England were the set-piece kings.
Corners and attacking free-kicks were genuinely good scoring opportunities, despite average stats showing this usually isn't the case.
Spain are the better football team as they've demonstrated throughout the summer and England going toe-to-toe with them is likely to end in defeat. They are far more flexible in their approach.
But defending set-pieces - the few they've conceded so far - has been a weak area.
Across their six games played, Spain's opponents have combined for 18 corners taken, yet they've faced six shots with two of them on target. They've averaged one shot against from every three corners they concede.
It's an average of 0.14 expected goals against (xGA) from set-pieces per game. Quite significant when we consider France were at 0.06 and Portugal were at 0.05.
I've backed John Stones to strike in our match preview and England may see this as a route to success in what could be a close contest.
Saka's defensive duty
While focus will be on the impact of Lamine Yamal down Spain's right, Nico Williams has been a threat on the left with Marc Cucurella also contributing in attack.
A total of 46% of Spain's attacks have been from their left side - that is the third-highest of the 24 teams involved at the tournament.
England will want some attacking returns from Bukayo Saka yet he is going to have to contribute defensively. Kyle Walker will need support down that side of the pitch.
A best price of 3/1 is available on Saka returning three or more tackles which is an appealing bet based on the match-up - it's 13/2 for four or more.
And on that...
Yamal is the favourite to win the Player of the Tournament and the Young Player of the Tournament awards - I'm not entirely sure if he'll be given both.
But, if England win on Sunday, someone from Southgate's squad must be in contention for an award and Saka remains 16/1 across the board to be named the Player of the Tournament.
The narrative suits Jude Bellingham after his recent rise but Saka has been consistent throughout and is someone who Southgate likely views as his best player.
Bellingham's won two Player of the Match awards to Saka's one - his coming in the quarter-final success over Switzerland - yet had Ollie Watkins not scored the late winner last time out and England progressed, Saka would have been a prime candidate.
Factor in that Southgate doesn't like taking him off either and there's a real chance he could be England's hero in the final.
Spain's attempts from distance
Jordan Pickford has been excellent for England, as we've now come to expect, but one weak area would be saving shots from distance.
This could be a problem when we look at where Spain have been taking their efforts from across the tournament so far.
A total of 44% of their shots have been from outside of the box with only four teams seeing a higher amount. Interestingly, England are at 43%.
The Three Lions have already been beaten twice by shots which have come from range this summer - Denmark and the Netherlands the duo to find a way through - with 41% of their total shots faced from outside the area.
Yamal has averaged 1.8 of his 2.7 shots a game from outside the box - he's 14/1 to score from this situation on Sunday. Fabian Ruiz is another name to focus on with his average 1.8 from 3.0 yet 25/1 is available on the midfielder in this market.
If you want something really outrageous to get involved with, Aymeric Laporte has seen two of his four shots at the tournament come from outside the area. He's 125/1 to strike and 20/1 to see a shot on target from outside the box.
Against Germany, he was given the space to drive forward unchallenged by any opponent. That led to him picking up the ball near halfway and shooting from a much closer range - the above screenshots show this.
England may look to protect their box and encourage shots to come from distance. Laporte, in possession, may be tempted once again to try his luck.
Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life
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