Euro 2024 football tips, predictions and best bets: Officials in focus on day 16
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
2pts Switzerland 2+ offsides vs Italy (17:00) at 12/5 (bet365)
1pt Maximilian Mittelstädt to be shown a card in Germany vs Denmark (20:00) at 5/1 (General)
Germany vs Denmark
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: ITV1
- Home 4/7 | Draw 14/5 | Away 19/4
Germany knew they'd likely face a tricky opponent in the round of 16 if they won the group, with England and Denmark the prime candidates from Group C.
It's the latter who head to Dortmund to take on the hosts and it's no surprise that Germany are 4/7 to win in 90 minutes and 2/7 to progress to the next stage.
This could be a game which sees the corner count reach double figures considering the styles of play. Odds-on prices are available on over 9.5.
From the Denmark perspective, it could be down to their preference of attacking on the right side. A total of 42% of the attacks have come down the right - that is the third-highest of any team at the tournament.
It could be a busier evening for MAXIMILLIAN MITTELSTÄDT then, making his 5/1 price to be carded worth backing.
He was carded in the 2-0 win over Hungary - meaning he is walking the suspension tightrope - but there are likely to be points in this game where he is drawn into committing fouls.
Referee Michael Oliver has only shown two cards at the tournament yet it's understandable when we look at the two games he's taken charge of.
Spain's 3-0 win over Croatia ended up as a one-sided contest, while Slovakia's draw with Ukraine was a second matchday contest with both looking to avoid bookings.
Oliver's average of 4.33 cards per Champions League, alongside 4.25 in the Champions League, shows he's an official not afraid to use his cards where appropriate. That could mean trouble for Mittelstädt.
Switzerland vs Italy
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Home 9/4 | Draw 19/10 | Away 11/8
Perhaps the most intriguing tie of the round of 16 to kick us off - Switzerland meet Italy with the outcome likely closer than the odds suggest.
An unbeaten campaign for the Swiss led to them finishing as the runners-up in Group A, while Italy needed a last gasp equaliser against Croatia to secure their place in the top two.
As highlighted in my latest Euros Notebook column, Switzerland do provide some value in the offsides markets for the remainder of their involvement.
Prices vary a lot - as is the case with usual stat betting - but SWITZERLAND 2+ OFFSIDES delivers huge appeal at 12/5, with anything around that 13/8 or above marker more than fine too.
No side has been caught offside more than Switzerland (9) at the tournament so far, with at least two coming in each of their three outings.
Why may this be? They do have a huge reliance on their width when building in attack. In fact, the 17% of attacks down the middle is the lowest of any team at the tournament.
With wing-backs and forwards allowed to drift wide, the potential for offsides is increased. Attempted overlaps or through balls typically heighten the possibility that a run is made too early.
Switzerland could actually cause a bit of an upset in terms of being outsiders in the odds, but at the prices, I'll side with the stats markets.
Odds correct at 1450 BST (28/06/24)
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