Euro 2024 football tips, predictions and best bets: Knockout stage preview
Tom Carnduff, Joe Townsend and Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill preview the knockout stage of Euro 2024, picking their best bets, assessing the tournament as a whole and giving their verdicts on England.
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 best bets
2pts Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot at 15/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
1pt Kobbie Mainoo Young Player of the Tournament at 66/1 (BoyleSports, BetVictor)
Joe Townsend
0.5pt e.w Wout Weghorst to win the Golden Boot at 66/1 (Sky Bet, 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Tom Carnduff
Euro 2024 round of 16 fixtures
Saturday 29 June
Switzerland vs Italy (Berlin, 17:00)
Germany vs Denmark (Dortmund, 20:00)
Sunday 30 June
England vs Slovakia (Gelsenkirchen, 17:00)
Spain vs Georgia (Cologne, 20:00)
Monday 1 July
France vs Belgium (Düsseldorf, 17:00)
Portugal vs Slovenia (Frankfurt, 20:00)
Tuesday 2 July
Romania vs Netherlands (Munich, 17:00)
Austria vs Türkiye (Leipzig, 20:00)
Euro 2024 winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- England - 7/2
- Spain - 4/1
- Germany, France - 11/2
- Portugal - 6/1
- Netherlands - 12/1
- Italy, Austria - 16/1
- Switzerland, Belgium - 33/1
- Denmark, Turkey - 66/1
- Romania - 150/1
- Slovakia, Slovenia - 200/1
- Georgia - 250/1
Can England make the most of their 'easy' draw?
- Possible quarter-final opponent: Switzerland/Italy
- Possible semi-final opponent: Romania/Netherlands/Austria/Turkey
Joe Townsend: While it's very hard to get excited about England, their defensive performance in the group stage feels like it has been overlooked, with Gareth Southgate's men conceding just one goal and allowing only 1.1 expected goals (xG).
There were signs with his substitutions against Slovenia that Southgate is ready to give the team the refresh it needs so I'm just about confident enough to say they'll make the final, although an unpredictable Netherlands team are the one nation who worry me should England have to face them.
Tom Carnduff: Yes. Even by their usual tournament luck standards this is remarkable. If they don't at least make the final, Keir Starmer can drum up further public support following the expected Labour landslide by personally sacking Southgate in his first duty as Prime Minister.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: In short, yes and we may very well have Phil Foden's missus to thank for it. The Manchester City midfielder flying home for the birth of his third child should force Southgate's hand to pick a better balanced team, allowing England to come alive in the knockout stage.
Who's going to win the Euros?
Joe Townsend: Spain have of course looked the most impressive but if I had to pick out just one team it would be FRANCE. They don't suffer from the same baggage as England thanks to their success over the past 30 years and seem confident in their ability to turn up when it matters in the knockout stage.
England still face questions about whether they can beat an elite opponent, France know they can and won't be affected by being on the harder side of the draw. It's understandable they're 11/2 having been 7/2 pre-tournament, but it's tempting for such a proven team, especially with Kylian Mbappe back and ready to go.
Tom Carnduff: Errrr, England maybe, or France, or the Netherlands, or Spain look quite good. Basically it's wide open. I'll go for a Spain vs England final and then take yer pick.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: Honestly no idea. It's wide open.
Could a surprise package win Euro 2024?
Joe Townsend: This tournament has been utter chaos, helped by the farcical third-place qualification system.
England have been so unimpressive it would be no shock should they be knocked out early, so looking at SWITZERLAND as a potential finalist and therefore a potential winner is really not beyond the bounds of possibility. Having been 80/1 pre-tournament, 40/1 still feels worth a punt giving the lopsided draw.
Tom Carnduff: On the 'easier side' of the draw, one can get far. Expect one of England or the Netherlands to progress to the final though - normality should resume despite that bizarre bracket.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: The wide-open nature of the tournament really gives a big-priced outsider a chance and SWITZERLAND are the team for me. They've shown great versatility so far: attacking flair against Hungary, digging in against Scotland and a strong tactical performance to stifle Germany. No-one will want to play them.
Who is most likely to cause a shock in the round of 16?
Joe Townsend: ROMANIA have been really fun to watch this summer and will make life incredibly tough for a Netherlands team who have some excellent players, but still seem to be trying to work things out. Taking them at 7/1 to win in 90 minutes or 4/1 to qualify is something to cheer on.
Tom Carnduff: In terms of the odds, nobody, I'm afraid. You might get an 'outsider' like Switzerland turning over Italy though.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: The romantic in me can't stay away from GEORGIA at a monster 16/1 in normal time and 9s to win the tie. They've looked great on the counter attack, especially with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and a have goalkeeper in inspired form in Giorgi Mamardashvili.
They beat Portugal, they couldn't beat Spain, could they?!
Who is going to win the Golden Boot?
Golden Boot winner odds (via Sky Bet)
- Kylian Mbappe (1) - 6/1
- Harry Kane (1) - 7/1
- Cody Gakpo (2) - 11/1
- Jamal Musiala (2) - 11/1
- Alvaro Morata (1), Niclas Fullkrug (2), *Georges Mikautadze (3) - 12/1
- Kai Havertz (1) - 16/1
- Jude Bellingham (1) - 20/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo (0), Romelu Lukaku (0), Bruno Fernandes (1) - 25/1
(x) = Goals scored - full list available here at UEFA.com
* = Golden Boot leader
Joe Townsend: HARRY KANE always starts slowly, both in tournaments and historically domestically - people seem to have forgotten the old 'Kane doesn't score in August'. He's also been victim of a dysfunctional team, which surely improves from the next fixture.
With England potentially facing far weaker opponents in the knockouts compared to Kane's most realistic rivals, whose teams are more likely to be involved in tight matches, he looks in a strong position to capitalise.
Tom Carnduff: WOUT WEGHORST time. Full explanation in the Euros Notebook here - PLEASE READ IT.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: HARRY KANE has netted 13 goals at major finals, with seven in 10 knockout appearances and five in 14 group-stage games. I don't ever remember him looking quite as shit as this, but I'm prepared to back him to turn up when it matters.
Who is going to win player of the tournament?
Player of the Tournament odds (via Sky Bet)
- Toni Kroos - 7/1
- Jude Bellingham, Jamal Musiala - 8/1
- Kylian Mbappe - 9/1
- Bruno Fernandes, N'Golo Kante - 12/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo - 16/1
- Harry Kane, Florian Wirtz, Fabian Ruiz - 20/1
- 25/1 bar
Young Player of the Tournament odds (via Sky Bet)
- Jamal Musiala - 9/4
- Lamine Yamal - 7/2
- Jude Bellingham - 11/2
- Florian Wirtz, Pedri - 6/1
- Nico Williams - 10/1
- Xavi Simons, Arda Guler - 22/1
- Nuno Mendes - 25/1
- Jeremy Doku - 28/1
- Cole Palmer, Kobbie Mainoo - 33/1
Joe Townsend: Having backed KOBBIE MAINOO at 20/1 to win Young Player of the Tournament before the off, based on Southgate turning to him in the group stage and realising he was vital to the team, I'm very happy to apply the same logic and go back with the teenager 66/1 to win the same award. Simple.
As for Player of the Tournament, I think it's impossible to back anyone on the other side of the draw to England to any kind of value, and it's almost impossible to predict an England player winning it because the Three Lions have been so poor.
TONI KROOS feels like a missed opportunity having been 20/1 pre-tournament given the narrative of him retiring immediately after the Euros, on home soil. Should Germany reach even the last four you have to think the legendary midfielder stands a great chance of winning.
Tom Carnduff: Hmmm. What about CODY GAKPO if the Netherlands get far? Odds of 100/1 are out there. He's been solid throughout the group stage and looks a completely different player when he's representing his country.
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: I can't look past JUDE BELLINGHAM to win Player of the Tournament at roughly the same price he was pre-tournament, given England's path to the final. He's gone missing since scoring against Serbia but no player encapsulates the English spirit more than he does, so any chance the Three Lions have feels like it's hitched to him.
Odds correct at 1200 BST (27/06/24)
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