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Euro 2024 football tips, predictions and best bets: Fouls in focus on day six
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 best bets
1pt Granit Xhaka 1+ assists in Scotland vs Switzerland (20:00) at 8/1 (General)
Scotland vs Switzerland
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Home 10/3 | Draw 23/10 | Away 17/20
A very quick note on this because we do have a full preview on site, which you can read here.
Again, this is another thing I mentioned in the Notebook but I want to have it in this column, and that's taking GRANIT XHAKA 1+ ASSISTS at a huge 8/1.
Only Denmark's Christian Eriksen (7) created more chances than Xhaka (4) across the opening weekend - a reminder that the Swiss midfielder does not take corners.
Xhaka operated in advanced positions and two of the four chances came from short cut backs from the left side of the opposition box. Four of his attempted five passes into the area were successful.
The 5/1 general price on the pick is still value based on his showings in the opening game. If you're after something a bit 'out there', Xhaka's still 250/1 to register the most assists at the tournament.
Already advised:
1pt Josko Gvardiol to score anytime in Croatia vs Albania (14:00) at 12/1 (General)
2pts Germany 11+ fouls committed vs Hungary (17:00) at evens (Sky Bet)
Croatia vs Albania
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV channel: ITV 1
- Home 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Away 6/1
I've covered this game a little bit in my latest Euros Notebook column, with Croatia in a good position to bounce back from that disappointing defeat to Spain.
They created four 'big chances' in their opening contest with five shots on target to go alongside it, and their missed penalty followed by the immediate offside ruling out a goal after it summing up their day.
They are a short price to get the two goals we spoke about on the daily podcast - 4/6 the price there and great to include in any multiple as we've done - meaning there is some value in the goalscorer market.
JOSKO GVARDIOL caught the eye at the back-end of last season for Manchester City and he's worth backing at 12/1 to strike anytime.
Operating at left-back against Spain, a regular position for his country, he returned two shots - that being the second-highest of any Croatian player on the pitch.
We would often see him in advanced positions when Croatia looked to get forward, dropping inside the box and aiming to fire into the opposite corner.
Friendlies against Egypt and Portugal - with 150 minutes played across those games at left-back - had three shots too, further highlighting the attacking impact in that position.
At 12/1 with multiple bookmakers, it appears that he's been priced up as a centre-back.
Germany vs Hungary
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Wednesday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Home 1/4 | Draw 19/4 | Away 19/2
Germany couldn't have asked for a better start to their home tournament after thrashing Scotland 5-1 in Munich on Friday.
Next up is a Hungary side who should deliver a much closer contest - although that's not hard if we're honest.
Alongside goals in that opener, fouls were also common, with Germany committing a huge total of 15 across the 90 minutes.
It could be the home crowd and the atmosphere that brings, which of course does play a part, but their set-up and aggressive approach out of possession is also a significant factor.
Even money is available on GERMANY 11+ FOULS COMMITTED which is an appealing enough price.
It was spread across a number of players too, with midfielder Robert Andrich leading the way with four in total. Germany's midfield trio contributed six of the four; the defensive line saw five.
In the friendlies leading up to the tournament, Germany returned 11 fouls against Greece, 12 against Ukraine, 12 against the Netherlands and ten against Germany - it's worth backing the trend of this count hitting double figures to continue.
Odds correct at 1635 BST (18/06/24)
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