Euro 2024 football tips, predictions and best bets: Big prices on day 12
Football betting tips: Euro 2024
1pt Slovenia over 3.5 corners vs England (20:00) at 13/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.75pt e.w. Andreas Christensen to score first in Denmark vs Serbia (20:00) at 40/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
Denmark vs Serbia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: ITV4
- Home 6/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/10
Another contest with complicated third place permutations but at least the top line is simple enough - they both need a win.
Denmark may well end up second anyway given that England are expected to get the better of Slovenia, but they can't afford to run the risk of relying on a result from elsewhere.
They should see the better of the chances in this contest, and Serbia's aggressive style of play could well see the corner count hit double figures.
Denmark had nine against Slovenia and I could see them running up the count again in this game. The three centre-backs, therefore, may see opportunities.
Given how they've set-up their corners at the tournament so far, ANDREAS CHRISTENSEN TO SCORE FIRST is a nice each-way play at 40/1.
Watching back all 13 corners they've taken so far, the general pattern of runs from their three defenders is:
- Jannik Vestergaard is the 'target man' for any flick-ons or passes back into the crowd - he typically makes the 'near post' run
- Joachim Andersen stays mostly central for the crowd of players
- Andreas Christensen is the one who gets the back post runs to pounce on any flick-ons
The above graphic highlights where Christian Eriksen is typically delivering their corners. All have been either towards the centre or deeper, meaning Christensen may get a chance or two to strike.
England vs Slovenia
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: ITV1
- Home 1/3 | Draw 19/5 | Away 8/1
A win here and England wrap up top spot in Group C - the expected outcome before a ball was kicked in Germany.
Complaints about the two previous performances from the Three Lions are warranted but they've still gained four points from their two games so far. A nice victory here and those previous worries will likely disappear.
England have their 'easiest' (ON PAPER) game last, and a group campaign delivering seven points from a possible nine will represent a strong position heading into the knockouts.
"Advantage England!"
β BBC Sport (@BBCSport) June 20, 2024
Harry Kane puts England in front from close range! π₯Ά
Watch live on BBC One or BBC iPlayer. #BBCEuros #Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/chGBFmYQ4I
Slovenia have something to play for though, as a win is likely to take them throughout to the knockout stages with four points.
Considering the likely game state, I'll taking SLOVENIA 4+ CORNERS at 13/5.
They've achieved this in both of their games so far, with four coming against Serbia and five in the opener vs Denmark.
The likelihood is that England lead in this game and their opponents will have to try and find a way back in. We could well see a couple landing late on if this is the case.
Already advised:
1.5pts Over 9.5 corners in Netherlands vs Austria (17:00) at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Jules Kounde to be shown a card in France vs Poland (17:00) at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
THIS WEEK'S ACCA - DAILY MULTIPLE: Andreas Christensen 1+ total shot, Austria 13+ fouls, Jules Kounde to commit 1+ fouls, Adam Gnezda Cerin to commit 3+ fouls at 15.39/1
Netherlands vs Austria
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: BBC Two
- Home 11/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 5/2
The Netherlands have a spot in the next round - not official but four points is incredibly likely to be enough - yet the chance of top spot remains which delivers a place on the 'easier' side of the bracket.
Austria's position is more uncertain, but gaining something from this game will also see them through. The likelihood is they have to settle for third though.
I don't buy into the fact that 'a point would suit both' as they have something to play for. It could be a competitive game with neither side deviating from their usual style of play.
Austria could perhaps consider themselves fortunate not to have conceded more than the two on their tally. Poland posted 1.68 xG for their goal while France saw 2.13 xG - high quality chances that weren't converted.
ππππ£πππ = π’π₯ππ‘ππ! π§‘#NothingLikeOranje #CreateHistory pic.twitter.com/bg2exR18QE
β OnsOranje (@OnsOranje) June 21, 2024
The same, to a lesser extent, applies to the Netherlands, so while their price for success does appeal, I'm going to steer away from the outright market for now.
Instead, I'll side with OVER 9.5 CORNERS at an eye-catching 11/8 best price.
Anything above even money is more than good enough considering how these two operate. Only Czechia (47%) have seen more attacks down their right side than the Netherlands (43%) across the opening two rounds of fixtures - they are using their width.
Austria took six corners in their contest with France and their high-pressing, aggressive approach could lead to a couple here simply from high turnovers.
Ralf Rangnick's side also sit fourth for crosses attempted among those who have only featured twice so far - that is usually a good sign for corners.
France vs Poland
- Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Tuesday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Home 1/4 | Draw 9/2 | Away 9/1
Poland's tournament is over after just two games, with their spot at the bottom of Group D confirmed following the defeat to Austria.
France could finish in any of the top three spots. They could capitalise here with a boost to their goal difference required for their chances of finishing top.
Like the Netherlands, top spot would be beneficial as it avoids Germany, Portugal and Spain until the final (should they get there). They are 1/4 to win this and should do so comfortably.
I'm going to go with a similar approach to one I took in Poland's last game, and I really like the 10/1 on JULES KOUNDE TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
France should dominate proceedings but Poland will look to break forward when they can and their reliance on attacking down their left side should mean that Kounde is busy enough.
Across their first two games, a huge 48% of Poland's attacks have been down their left side. In the clash with Austria, opposition right-back Stefan Posch committed four fouls but somehow avoided a booking.
Against the Netherlands, Denzel Dumfries was drawn into two fouls, while he also had three successful tackles.
You could ladder Kounde's fouls line on Sky Bet, with 8/11 for 1+, 7/2 for 2+ and 14/1 for 3+, but I'll side with the card given the potential for a foul on a Poland counter attack being enough.
Odds correct at 1455 BST (24/06/24)
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