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Euro 2024 final verdict and key questions for Spain vs England

By Sporting Life

19:59 · SUN July 14, 2024

Tom Carnduff, Joe Townsend, Jake Osgathorpe and Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill preview the final of Euro 2024, picking out their best bets, assessing the match as a whole and giving their final verdicts on whether England can overcome Spain in Berlin to win a first major trophy since 1966.

Will England win it?

Ollie Watkins' stunning last-gasp strike sent England to Berlin

Joe Townsend: It will get thrown around a lot that England have paced their tournament, they have momentum, Spain may have peaked too soon, all those kind of things. Spain have been without doubt the best team and I think it sets up a really good contest that I struggle to see it not being very keenly fought.

You look at the most recent major tournament finals, and four of the last five World Cup finals have been level after 90 minutes, and four of the last seven Euros finals have. Two of the three that didn't were 1-0 wins. They might actually match up in a way that England are one of few teams able to restrict Spain, which is why I'm going for the DRAW after 90 minutes.

It's too close to call after that.

Tom Carnduff: I mean, we were very, very close to England drawing all of games other their opening win over Serbia, so I'm inclined to agree with Joe.

Spain are the best team in the tournament, but England have 'the vibes' back. And that's basically what England's recent success - or drastic improvement - has largely been built on, as it gives them that togetherness to find a way.

So it's a DRAW for me too. Then I can't really split them.

Spain vs England
Sunday 14 July, 20:00
BBC One & ITV1
Home 7/5 | Draw 2/1 | Away 21/10

Jake Osgathorpe: I definitely think the draw will be a runner. The average goals in Euros final stretching back to 1992 is 1.75, so it's extremely low, with one usually being enough. Obviously, if the goals total is so low, the draw is massively in play.

That being said, look at the success of recent tournament winners - Argentina and France being examples - and they're built on limited tactics. It's just kind of creating some kind of semi system where, when they get on the ball players express themselves. When they lose it, they come back into a shell. Didier Deschamps, Lionel Scaloni and Gareth Southgate are broadly similar in that way.

I can't see there being quite the chaos of Spain-Germany, and I'm leaning towards ENGLAND TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES, edging it maybe 2-1.

Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill: I'm a bit worried. Spain were creating chances before France scored, they were creating chances after France scored. They're so fearless, so slick around the box, especially compared with how pedestrian England are. But if they do score first, oddly, that may actually suit England.

I'm not against the draw, but I can't even commit to it being low scoring because a better team usually brings out a better England. I know I've given big praise to Spain, but heart over head ENGLAND to edge a ding dong affair - I'm even willing to go as far as saying 3-1.

Are Spain really that good?

Fabian Ruiz has been one of Spain's midfield stars this summer

Jimmy: It's been a terrible tournament in terms of quality, we've been starved of decent football because the way everyone was going on about that first half of Spain v France was all a bit over the top. They're a good team, and have been the best in the tournament, but I'm not convinced they are head and shoulders above, as a lot of people are making out.

Joe: I'm with Jimmy. Spain are nothing like the 2008-2012 team. Not even close. Germany caused them all sorts of problems, they needed brilliance to fight back against France and then didn't play well for long periods of the second half, with France creating plenty, they've just been poor attacking-wise this tournament. It didn't leave me thinking England will be outclassed.

Jake: England's best performance came against the best team they've played because they had more space to operate in. It's really difficult playing against teams with a deep-ish block who try and frustrate. Players like Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham can cause huge problems when able to get into those pockets. England will get space again against this direct, attacking Spain team.

Tom: They're clearly the best team at the tournament and have shown a fair amount of tactical flexibility without ever abandoning the way they play. But the bravery they play with does open them up defensively, something that especially leaves them exposed on the counter attack. That's definitely something England will be trying to take full advantage of on Sunday.

Shaw to start?

Luke Shaw was a half-time substitute against the Netherlands

Tom: Southgate has to, because if he doesn't start and England don't win, there's going to be the questions of 'why did you only take one left-back who wasn't fit and you haven't started him in any games' when it's clearly been a weak point.

Joe: I don't think so. By starting him, England lose having the impetus to bring him on to affect the game. It could be that the match is cagey for an hour and then they have to take Shaw off because he's not fit enough, and they've wasted him. Southgate sticks with Trippier because of that.

Jake: A combination of what Joe said and also Trippier's defensive ability against Lamine Yamal makes me think he sticks with the same starting XI.

Jimmy: Shaw has to start. This is it, what's the point in taking him and managing his fitness if you're not going to start him in the final?

Southgate to stay or go?

Gareth Southgate has been England manager since 2016

Jake: If England win, he'll have another shot at the World Cup, won't he? Having picked up the wreckage he did in 2016 it would seem daft to walk away now he has an unbelievably talented, young squad, letting someone else have a go. If he wins it I hope he stays and takes this group to the World Cup.

Tom: Is it eight years and enough? It's a tough, draining job being the England manager. Leaving on a high, finally delivering that major trophy, or lose and walk away knowing we've had a really good go at it. World Cup semi-final, two Euros finals, I'm done now. I've had a go, I'm going to let someone else try.

It feels like the narrative is that whatever happens, he just steps down and has decided he's going to leave, but there is this "we won the Euros, we could win the World Cup" that even has me having second thoughts. I'm leaning towards him going, though.

Joe: I'd be staggered if he didn't leave at the end of the tournament. I think he's already decided. He said he never wanted to get to a point where being manager could lead to a negative impact on the players themselves. It definitely got to that point in this tournament which it never has been before. Only because Jude Bellingham scored an overhead kick have they managed to come out of it. He's not blind to that.

All the abuse he took after the Slovenia game too, that will have taken its toll.

And in terms of all the players, all the potential, I think he's taken them as far as he can within the limitations that he is, which is a brilliant man-manager, brilliant in terms of preparation, but limited as a coach. I think he'll step down.

Jimmy: I think it might all come down to the result in the final. I want him to stay, unless we have a bad group stage in the World Cup then I want him GONE! That's how fickle most fans are right? If England win, I think he takes them to the World Cup, if not, I think it's all over on Sunday.

Odds correct at 1530 BST (12/07/24)

Euro 2024: More from Sporting Life

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