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Euro 2024 final tips: Jake Osgathorpe's predictions for Spain vs England
Football betting tips: Spain vs England
2pts Phil Foden 2+ total shots at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Kieran Trippier to win 1+ foul at 5/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Fabian Ruiz to score from outside the area at 25/1 (Sky Bet)
- *All bets are in 90 minutes
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After going 55 years without reaching a major tournament final, England have done so twice in three tournaments and in back-to-back European Championships.
This will be their first not on home soil, too.
From an England perspective, get set for a nerve-racking Sunday, and let's just hope Gareth Southgate's men can go one better second time around and finally end those years of hurt.
On the betting front, the semis were profitable. Jesus Navas did his bit while the Netherlands' late head-loss saw the cards match bet land. Our tournament profit for this column now stands at +14.2pts with just one game remaining, so let's try and go out with a bang and get to the +20pt mark...
Spain vs England
- Sunday 14th July, 20:00 - BBC One & ITV1
- Home 7/5 | Draw 2/1 | Away 11/5
It seemed extremely unlikely after the group stage that Southgate's side would make it this far, and while the route has been kind, the Three Lions have improved with every knockout display. Spain, on the other hand, have been consistently good. Just like at Euro 2020, the best team at the tournament.
Pre-tournament favourites England now find themselves as outsiders for the final; it's a surprise to see such a gap in prices given the improvements England have made.
Fancying Foden
But we'll move away from the main markets for my best bet of the game, which is PHIL FODEN 2+ TOTAL SHOTS, available at odds against.
England's new system gets Foden in his best position, as a ten with license to float around and affect the game, usually from the right-hand side. The Manchester City star looks much more at home than earlier in the tournament, and is having a greater impact as a result.
So far at Euro 2024 he's taken 12 shots at an average of 2.03 per 90, registering three in the semi final - the first match this tournament where play became stretched, providing Foden with more space to get on the ball and drive between the lines.
Spain will offer a similar opportunity given their direct style of play and unwillingness to change tactics. They'll take the game to England.
Trip him over
Spain's direct approach should again lead to fouls. Their aggressive press means they lead the tournament in fouls per game, and with the Three Lions the most fouled team per game at Euro 2024, it makes sense to have a pop in those markets.
Spain are even money to make 13+ fouls which would have appealed if they were playing a more combative and open side, but instead I'm going to take a chance on KIERAN TRIPPIER TO WIN 1+ FOUL at 5/4.
The angle is based around the fact that the opposing left-back has been fouled in all of Spain's last five matches at Euro 2024, being fouled multiple times in three of those. Trippier has won 0.79 fouls per 90 at the tournament with this bet landing in three of his six starts.
In the best possible way, he goes down very easily when in a tussle, likely a skill honed when playing for Atletico Madrid, and this season for Newcastle he drew 0.84 fouls per 90.
There is, of course, the caveat of Luke Shaw potentially replacing Trippier in the starting XI.
Some firms will void your selection if this is the case, but most won't. So it becomes a balance between jumping on the price before it goes or waiting for confirmed team news.
My gut feeling is with Lamine Yamal on that side, Trippier keeps his place and Shaw remains an impact substitute.
Let's hope so (for this bet anyway).
Ruiz from range
Finally, I'm going to have a pop from range and tip FABIAN RUIZ TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA at 25/1 with Sky Bet. Ruiz has been sensational for Spain at this tournament, excellent on the ball but also at getting into advanced areas.
He has taken 15 shots, with nine from outside the box. If England get into their defensive shell at some point in the game, he'll have a pop.
Another reason I'm backing him to score from distance is because of Jordan Pickford. While he will go down as one of England's best goalkeepers, his one glaring weakness is shots from range, which has been especially apparent for the national team.
Across the last three major tournaments he has conceded four goals from outside the box. Mikkel Damsgaard netted in the Euro 2020 semis, Aurelien Tchouameni beat him in the 2022 World Cup quarters, and so far this tournament both Morten Hjumland and Xavi Simons have done the same.
I hope I'm wrong for England's sake, but at the prices it's worth a nibble on Spain's most prevalent shooter from distance beating a goalkeeper who has underperformed when facing shots from range for England - four conceded from an on-target xG of 2.31 across the last three tournaments.
Score prediction: Spain 1-2 England (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1500 (11/07/24)
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