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Euro 2020: Who to back in semi-finals and when are they?
Ahead of the semi-finals, Jake Osgathorpe uses the Infogol model to see who is most likely to both progress to the final, and go all the way at Euro 2020.
Italy v Spain
- Italy 29/20 | Draw 11/5 | Spain 2/1
- Tuesday, 20:00 BST - BBC One
- Wembley Stadium - London, England
SPAIN: Spain didn't win Group E, but they deserved to according to Expected Goals (xG), dominant in all three of their matches.
The underlying numbers they posted were mind-boggling, especially in attack, where they averaged 3.23 xGF per game. That level of attacking dominance continued in their round of 16 clash with Croatia, where they won 5-3 after extra-time.
Luis Enrique's side racked up 4.43 xGF in that game, but while they looked impressive going forward, their defensive display was hugely concerning, allowing 3.05 xGA and conceding two late goals in normal time.
However, they maintained their fine attacking form in the quarter-finals, again bossing the xG battle (3.33 - 0.92) against a brave 10-man Switzerland side who hung on for penalties after a 1-1 draw, the Spaniards surviving a low-quality shoot-out 3-1 on spot-kicks.
ITALY: Italy were arguably the most impressive team in the opening stage, dismantling Group A with three wins without conceding, and the underlying numbers backed up their dominance (2.27 xGF, 0.47 xGA per game).
Roberto Mancini's men needed extra time to get past Austria in the round of 16, a surprise to many - but they deservedly progressed after creating the better chances in the extra period.
The normal time draw extended their unbeaten run to a new national team record of 31 games - and that became 32 after the Azzurri saw off much-fancied Belgium in the quarter-finals.
Italy edged the xG battle 2.13 - 1.85 over the Belgians as fabulous strikes from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne - plus some wasteful finishing from Romelu Lukaku - booked a revenge mission against Spain, who beat them in the 2012 final.
Infogol makes them the marginal 54.8% favourites for Tuesday's tie, where they should meet England - according to the model.
England v Denmark
- England 4/6 | Draw 13/5 | Denmark 9/2
- Wednesday, 20:00 BST - ITV
- Wembley Stadium - London, England
DENMARK: Denmark's story at Euro 2020 is a fairytale one. From the trauma of what occurred in their opening 1-0 defeat against Finland, to the potential title they are now just two wins from.
Their 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic wasn't as impressive as their previous performances, narrowly losing the xG battle, but having raced into a 2-0 lead, they showcased their defensive will once again.
In the absence of talismanic captain Christian Eriksen, many thought the Danes would struggle for creativity in attack, but that hasn't been the case at all, with Kasper Hjulmand's side averaging an impressive 2.23 xGF per game.
Defensively they had been sound up until the quarter-final against the Czechs, but the direct approach and consistent crosses seemed to trouble them somewhat, but even in that game they allowed just the one 'big chance'. What comes next will be some challenge, though, with Infogol calculating that they are serious (35.6%) underdogs.
ENGLAND: The Three Lions roared to the semi-finals with an emphatic 4-0 win over Ukraine in Rome, a game in which they dominated from start to finish.
England are yet to concede at Euro 2020, and that isn't a surprise given their underlying numbers, with Gareth Southgate's side allowing just 0.66 xGA per game and only one 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) - Thomas Muller's one-on-one for Germany.
Attack had been an issue up until the Ukraine game, with the Three Lions hitherto failing to breach 2.0 xGF in a match, but a more attack-minded 4-2-3-1 paid dividends, and set-pieces delivered too.
Both Harry Maguire and Jordan Henderson netted from dead-ball situations, something England hadn't managed in their first four matches of Euro 2020 after scoring a hatful at the 2018 World Cup.
With England looking a threat from set-pieces, as well as from open play, while also being one of the most solid teams at the Euros, the recipe for success is there. The Infogol model's 64.4% calculation that England will win their Wembley semi-final with Denmark reflects that.
And at 35% to win the whole thing - a full 7.2% more than closest challengers Spain - maybe it really is coming home...
