Wales' Euro 2020 campaign kicks off against Switzerland on Saturday and Tom Carnduff picks out a best bet for the game.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Wales v Switzerland
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 15/8 (Unibet)
Wales' long-term fate at the tournament is likely to be decided by the outcome of this game.
Lining up alongside Italy and Turkey in Group A, they will know the importance of victory here if they are to secure progression as the likely third-placed team in the group.
The same can be said for Switzerland, who are in a better position to battle Turkey for the runners-up spot. Three points in this game gives the winner a great chance of reaching the round of 16 - Euro 2016 taught us that a win and a breakeven goal difference should be enough.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Baku Olympic Stadium - Baku, Azerbaijan
Home 11/4 | Draw 2/1 | Away 23/20
It could be a cagey game at times but Switzerland's involvement could well bring goals. They've been in fine form in attack and will be viewing that as a strength at this tournament. Wales, on the other hand, do have the personnel to play an effective counter attacking style if needed.
While Euro 2016 was a memorable one for Wales - defying the odds by reaching the semi-finals - a reappearance five years later doesn't have the same feel to it as it did back then. Mixed results in 2021 hasn't provided ideal preparation on the pitch and the headlines concerning Ryan Giggs and his absence from the dugout have been prevalent off it.
Switzerland, on the other hand, fly into the tournament having won their last five games. That includes World Cup qualification victories over Bulgaria and Lithuania alongside friendly wins against Finland, Liechtenstein and the United States.
A theme throughout the contests has been goals. Looking prior to the 7-0 hammering of Liechtenstein in their most recent outing, Switzerland were seeing an average of three goals per game. That run included scoring in games against Belgium, Croatia and Spain alongside hitting three past Germany.
That shouldn't equate to them going far in this tournament but it should lead to a decent game for the neutral to kick off Saturday's action. Given some of their results in 2020 and 2021, the best price of 15/8 on OVER 2.5 GOALS in this contest looks a good one to back.
The 15/8 best price gives an implied probability of 34.8%, and even the general price of 7/4 comes out at a figure of 36.4%. However, the Infogol model has over 2.5 goals coming in 41% of the time. Based on that, we should be expecting to see odds of around 7/5 for this selection.
Wales' Euro 2020 should be low-scoring on the whole, and I'd have little issue in backing their under 2.5 tournament goals odds of 11/10 given how we are only expecting them to feature in three games, but they can grab one here given the importance of the contest.
Prior to this latest international break, they had scored in each of their previous five games and should have got one in defeat against France - Hugo Lloris' fantastic save denying Daniel James from inside the box.
With little else jumping out in an intriguing opening game for both sides, backing the OVERS LINE ON GOALS at a great price is where the best bet can be found.
Wales v Switzerland best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 2.5 goals at 15/8 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Wales 1-2 Switzerland (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct at 1830 BST (08/06/21)
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