Both Ukraine and North Macedonia lost their opening group games in high-scoring matches, and Jake Osgathorpe thinks this fixture could also see goals.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Ukraine v North Macedonia
2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfred)
1pt Ukraine to win and BTTS at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Both Ukraine and North Macedonia lost their opening games, with both matches seeing plenty of goals, and this should be no different.
If either side is to qualify for the knockout round, they have to feel that this is must-win, especially minnows North Macedonia, who play the Netherlands in their final Group C game.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Thursday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: National Arena - Bucharest, Romania
Ukraine 3/5 | Draw 14/5 | North Macedonia 19/4
Defences are frail
Ukraine’s 3-2 defeat to the Netherlands left many more sceptical over the Dutch side than the Ukrainians, which is the narrative driven approach.
Andriy Shevchenko’s side came from two goals down to level things up, with pundits and fans alike drawing the conclusion that the Dutch are frail, forgetting the previous 70 minutes, where Ukraine had been dominated.
In fact, the Netherlands racked up an impressive 2.07 xG in the game, while Ukraine nearly snatched a point thanks to a long-range wonder-strike from Andriy Yarmolenko (4%) and a brilliant header from Roman Yaremchuk (38%).
⚽️🇳🇱 Georginio Wijnaldum opened the scoring with his fifth chance of the match and Denzel Dumfries scored a late winner with his third!
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 13, 2021
đź‘Ź Plenty of drama inbetween too, as Netherlands defeat Ukraine 3-2 in their #Euro2020 opener.#NED #UKR #NEDUKR
The story of the game should have been just how easy the Netherlands found it to create good scoring chances against Ukraine – they generated three non-penalty big chances (35% or greater).
Given the state of play, with Ukraine really needing to win here against the lowest ranked side in their group, I expect them to play on the front foot, which could leave an already weak defence even more exposed.
North Macedonia showed fight against Austria in their 3-1 defeat, but lacked quality and decisiveness at both ends of the pitch.
They too conceded a host of good chances (2.46 xG), with the Austrians creating four big chances across the 90 minutes, making it is difficult to see how North Macedonia keep Ukraine out in this one.
If they are to have any chance of progressing, a win is needed here, so they too should be playing on the front foot in this one, which should leave space for Ukraine’s more talented attack to exploit.
The state of the group, coupled with weak defences, should lead to goals here.
Ukraine should get the win here as the team with more attacking firepower, but OVER 2.5 GOALS makes appeal at an odds-against price.
Shevchenko’s men could cover this line by themselves, but we should see an open game given the fact both sides need to win to have any chance of progressing.
Ukraine to edge proceedings
With both sides looking far from convincing in defence, and goals expected, the team with the better attacking options should be backed in some way to win.
That team is Ukraine, who impressed at times with the fluidity with which their forward play got them into good areas against the Netherlands.
Roman Yaremchuk looked really good in that game, with his hold-up and link play impressive, while his pressing was also eye-catching. His finish wasn’t bad either.
Andriy Yarmolenko looked a constant threat, too, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Ukrainians get the win, but also concede.
UKRAINE TO WIN AND BTTS can be backed at a boosted price of 10/3 with Sky Bet, and that is worth a few quid given what we saw from both sides in their group openers.
Ukraine v North Macedonia best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (Betfred)
- 1pt Ukraine to win and BTTS at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Ukraine 2-1 North Macedonia (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1400 BST (14/06/21)
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