Jake Pearson previews England's Euro 2020 quarter-final match against Ukraine, picking out two best bets and a score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Ukraine v England
2pts England to win and Under 3.5 Goals at evens (Betway)
1pt England to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 21/10 (Bet365, Betway)
Ukraine arrived at Euro 2020 as the top seed in Group C, having pipped Portugal to first place in their qualifying group, so the fact they snuck into the knockout stages as the fourth-best third-placed team in the group stage must have been disappointing for manager Andriy Shevchenko.
They limped to a dismal 1-0 defeat to Austria in their final group game, a result that for a long time did not look like it would be enough to see them progress, particularly as they posted a goal difference of -1, but that is all forgotten now.
A round of 16 tie against Sweden was their reward for finishing third, and both sides must have been relatively happy with the draw pre-match, but it was certainly Ukraine who took the game to the Swedes, recording 59% possession while registering 13 shots, four on target.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Olimpico - Rome, Italy
Ukraine 8/1 | Draw 7/2 | England 4/11
They created the better chances and ultimately got what they deserved, taking the lead in the match only to be pegged back, before Artem Dovbyk headed in the winner in the last minute of extra time.
It was a performance full of desire and determination from Ukraine, but not really one laden with quality.
🇺🇦⏱️ Ukraine continue their dream run thanks to Artem Dovbyk's first international goal in stoppage-time in extra-time.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 29, 2021
⚽️ It was the super sub's third cap, first appearance at #Euro2020 and first shot on target as Ukraine eventually made the most of creating the better chances
England need to focus
England obviously come into this game on the back of a historic 2-0 victory over Germany, but it is vital that the players remain focused and do not get carried away with that result.
This will be a tough game for the Three Lions, and it will be interesting to see what formation Gareth Southgate plumps for.
Will he stick with a three at the back, or will he revert to the 4-2-3-1 he played throughout the group stages? Will he start Jack Grealish, or will he wait for the game to stretch in order to maximize his impact, as he did against Germany?
The big issue with tipping in an England match is nobody knows the answer to these questions, but the one thing we can be relatively certain of is that Southgate will not throw too much caution to the wind.
While there will undoubtedly be a clamour among England fans for Southgate to somehow shoehorn Grealish, Phil Foden, Mason Mount, Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane into the same team, he has proven throughout this tournament that he is unwilling to waver from the defensive structure that has served his side so well.
With this in mind, it is feasible to think that first and foremost England will attempt to stifle Ukraine, depriving them of the spaces their individual talents would need to hurt Southgate’s men.
As the game progresses England can gradually become more expansive and attempt to pick off the Ukraine defence with percentage passes.
Couple a lack of goals with an England win
England are yet to concede a goal at Euro 2020, and this should be yet another low-scoring affair.
Initially, the recommended bet was going to be England to win to nil, however, having dug through the prices, it is just not big enough to tip up.
England are generally a 2/5 shot to win the match, but by taking that price and multiplying it by 4/5, the price on Ukraine not scoring a goal, we arrive at a price of 6/4, so the fact 11/10 is about the best price you can get on England to win to nil means it is not worth backing.
Also, with the individual ability that exists among the Ukraine ranks, Andriy Yarmolenko and Oleksandr Zinchenko immediately springing to mind, Shevchenko’s men are capable of scoring a goal from nothing.
This is still unlikely to be a goal-laden tie, however, and backing ENGLAND TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS looks the way to play this.
By multiplying England’s price (2/5) to win in 90 minutes, with the price of Under 3.5 Goals (1/4), we arrive at 8/11, which means the even money on offer about this selection represents value.
This also gives us an extra cushion in case Ukraine do manage to end England’s clean sheet run, while also covering the eventuality that the Three Lions adopt a more attacking attitude and win by a higher margin than previously at this tournament.
However, using the same method we can also determine that backing ENGLAND TO WIN AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS is also value, with the combined prices coming out at roughly 7/4 (available to back at 21/10), so it is also worth placing a smaller stake on this selection.
Ukraine v England best bets and score prediction
- 2pts England to win and Under 3.5 Goals at evens (Betway)
- 1pt England to win and Under 2.5 Goals at 21/10 (Bet365, Betway)
Score prediction: Ukraine 0-2 England (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (30/06/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
