Liam Kelly previews Ukraine against Austria in Euro 2020 Group C, picking out a best bet that opposes the 'convenient draw' that has raised its head.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Ukraine v Austria
1pt Ukraine to beat Austria at 13/5 (Unibet)
Are we all familiar with the 'Disgrace of Gijon'? Maybe not, but it will undoubtedly be mentioned in the run up to this fixture.
Funnily enough, Austria were involved in that, too. They faced West Germany in the final group game of the 1982 FIFA World Cup, and with the outcome of the other match in the group already known, both sides knew that a win by one or two goals for West Germany would result in both sides progressing to the knockout stages.
A similar situation has arisen in Group C. With both Ukraine and Austria on three points, a draw would be enough — barring a freak occurrence — to see both sides through.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: ITV4
Venue: National Arena - Bucharest, Romania
Ukraine 23/10 | Draw 21/20 | Austria 11/4
While a draw would suit both teams, the crash in price for that outcome does offer us the opportunity to find value elsewhere in the 1X2 market.
Ukraine the better side
Of the two teams, Ukraine have shown themselves to be the smarter outfit in this tournament, giving the Netherlands a hard time in the opener before dispatching of minnows North Macedonia with relative ease on Thursday.
Andriy Shevchenko's side missed plenty of chances to beat North Macedonia by a more comfortable margin than 2-1, displaying the quality they possess in advanced areas by generating 3.66 expected goals for (xGF).
Ukraine have endured some shaky moments in defence, but their opponent shouldn't worry them in the slightest.
Austria put in what only can be described as a shambles of a performance against the Netherlands, losing 2-0 on Thursday night, barely troubling the Dutch while allowing a hatful of scoring opportunities in the process.
💪 A commanding win for Netherlands books their place in the last 16 of #Euro2020 but they could have scored more.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 17, 2021
📈 Their xG of 3.46 against Austria was the third highest of the tournament so far behind Wales (3.83 v Turkey) and Ukraine (3.68 v North Macedonia)#NED #NEDAUT
Franco Foda's men were hardly impressive in their opening 3-1 win over North Macedonia, either, relying on late goals to claim three points against the weakest team in the group.
Although it happened in 1982, it's difficult to envisage professionals playing out a comparable bore draw in a 2021 major tournament — despite the benefits involved.
However, it would be wise to stick to small stakes in this one, and UKRAINE TO WIN appears the value play at 13/5 given their performances thus far.
The draw is a distinct possibility. It just doesn't make sense to side with it at silly prices, though.
Ukraine v Austria best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Ukraine to beat Austria at 13/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Ukraine 2-1 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1230 BST (18/06/21)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
