Turkey meet Wales with both sides knowing the importance of victory at this stage. Tom Carnduff has found value in the goalscorer market.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Turkey v Wales
1pt Caglar Soyuncu to score anytime at 20/1 (General)
1pt Burak Yilmaz to score anytime at 12/5 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)
Wales' Euro 2020 campaign began with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland on Saturday. It's a good point when we consider the performance and the fact that Danny Ward made a number of good saves to keep them in the game.
Switzerland finished with an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 2.60 from 18 shots - Wales should have really left empty-handed.
Just how sustainable their approach will be in the 'long run' remains the big question. Turkey were well beaten by Italy but we can point to just how good the Italians were rather than Turkey's own issues. They will now know the importance of victory in this game if they are to progress to the next stage.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Baku Olympic Stadium - Baku, Azerbaijan
Turkey 11/8 | Draw 2/1 | Wales 9/4
Turkey's odds-against price justifies good value given the group situation going into matchday two. Switzerland should have had more on their tally on Saturday and the 'home' side here can capitalise on those defensive issues in a victory with goals.
While Turkey were limited in their chances against Italy, some great defending denied them a consolation late on and that's why the 12/5 available on BURAK YILMAZ TO SCORE ANYTIME looks good value here. He was through on goal and had managed to get a shot away but the Italy defender did enough to divert the ball behind.
Turkey's xG figure in that game was 0.52 and 0.43 of that was Yilmaz's shot in the 92nd minute. That was the second-best opportunity of the game as well - only Ciro Immobile's goal had a higher xG figure (0.59).
Wales struggled to get to grips with Switzerland's attackers in their opening game. Breel Embolo, who got the goal, finished the game with six total shots while his strike partner Haris Seferovic had four. Allowing as many opportunities to a striker like Yilmaz, particularly after the season he has enjoyed, will surely lead to a goal at some stage.
Yilmaz to score and Turkey to win is a 7/2 double with Sky Bet, which is a bet that is definitely worth considering, but the 12/5 odds on a goal anytime provides enough value to take it as a single. In what feels like a must-win game for Turkey, Yilmaz can star and provide the much needed goals as they also aim to chip away at the goal difference.
Staying with Turkey and a bet I'm intrigued by is the 20/1 on CAGLAR SOYUNCU TO SCORE ANYTIME. While Switzerland enjoyed plenty of shots, their centre-backs particularly had opportunities and they could have easily had a goal as Wales struggled to cope with set-pieces - Embolo's goal came via a header from a corner.
It carried an xG rating of 0.50, the highest of any shot in the contest, but Fabian Schar and Manuel Akanji also had decent efforts saved. Schar's wonderful backheel (0.18 xG) was pushed away while Akanji also missed an opportunity. Combined, the two centre-backs had three shots totalling 0.36 xG.
Soyuncu scored in Turkey's World Cup qualification victory over Norway in March and also netted a late season goal for Leicester in their win at Manchester United. For both club and country, the centre-back averaged 0.4 shots per game which is a good figure considering his position on the pitch.
It's 6/5 that Soyuncu has one shot in this game, which again looks a great bet, and 7/2 that the shot is on target but considering the chances we saw Switzerland enjoy in that game on Saturday it's worth going big on the 20/1 available for a goal anytime.
Combining the goalscorers with a Turkey win gives odds of 7/2 for Yilmaz and a huge 28/1 on Soyuncu. They are both good bets but the value available as singles is good enough to back them individually. If it's the outright result that is more appealing, three points for Turkey is worth taking at 11/8 - but the best bets in this game can be found in the goalscorer market.
Turkey v Wales best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Caglar Soyuncu to score anytime at 20/1 (General)
- 1pt Burak Yilmaz to score anytime at 12/5 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor)
Score prediction: Turkey 2-0 Wales (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1115 BST (14/06/21)
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