A Baku showdown between Switzerland and Turkey, with this a must-win game for both. Fresh from 11/10, 10/3 and 9/1 winners in midweek, Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
An intriguing final group game we have in store in Baku.
Switzerland need a win to have any chance of qualifying, while Turkey need a comprehensive win if they are to do the unthinkable and progress, given their -5 goal difference.
The Swiss are priced up as 8/11 favourites to win the game, which isn’t a surprise given how poor the Turks have been in the competition thus far.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: ITV 4
Venue: Baku Olympic Stadium - Baku, Azerbaijan
Turkey have been terrible
Şenol Güneş’s side came into Euro 2020 full of optimism and hope after a strong Euro qualifying campaign and an excellent start to World Cup qualifying, but Turkey have been the most disappointing team at the Euros, losing against both Italy (3-0) and Wales (2-0).
Infogol calculates that they have just a 7% chance of progressing, but a win is required in this game to have any chance, and a good margin of victory is likely needed.
It is a longshot for them to qualify, and their motivation has to be questioned after two shocking performances in which they looked tired, vulnerable in defence and bereft of ideas in attack.
For more context, both Italy and Wales completely shredded their defence, with the Italians racking up 2.03 xG and the Welsh generating chances equating to a huge 3.83 xG.
They have been defensively woeful at this tournament, and while they did create a few chances in their second game (1.65 xG), they are a tough team to trust.
Were Swiss holding back v Italy?
Switzerland were also beaten 3-0 by Italy, a poor performance, but impressed greatly against Wales in a game they were unfortunate to draw (xG: WAL 0.57 – 2.60 SUI).
They created chance after chance in that game and were sucker-punched by a low-probability headed goal.
That result and performance looks even better after what Wales did to Turkey.
I was surprised with just how bad Switzerland were against Italy, but they did have a long slog travelling from Baku to Rome, and this much more winnable game was likely in the back of their mind – it could have been the case that they were holding back physically.
I could be reaching, but with a trip back to Baku from Rome, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Swiss played in second gear against the Azzurri, saving themselves for this winnable contest.
Happy to side with Swiss
With Breel Embolo and Xherdan Shaqiri in their starting line-up, the Rossocrociati have enough quality in attack to hurt what is a porous Turkey backline, especially with their dribbling abilities.
I think Switzerland will get the win they need to progress, but I’m not expecting it to be high-scoring, with the Swiss likely to sit back and counter-attack after going ahead.
That means that SWITZERLAND TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS appeals greatly at odds of 8/5, especially as Turkey have struggled in attack themselves and are yet to score this tournament.
Switzerland v Turkey best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Switzerland to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 8/5 (Bet365, Betway)
Score prediction: Switzerland 1-0 Turkey (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 0830 BST (18/06/21)
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