Switzerland take on Spain on Friday, with both coming into this after goal laden last 16 ties. Jake Osgathorpe thinks the goals will continue to flow.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Switzerland v Spain
2pts Over 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 23/20 (Novibet)
2pts Alvaro Morata to score anytime at 17/10 (Unibet)
Spain and Switzerland were both involved in one of the most entertaining nights of tournament football we have seen in years on Monday, as both drew 3-3 in normal time in dramatic circumstances.
Luis Enrique’s side blew a 3-1 lead against Croatia, conceding in the 92nd minute as the tie went to extra-time before they exerted their authority again, running away 5-3 winners.
The Swiss were 3-1 down to world champions France but rallied late to score a 90th minute equaliser of their own before winning on penalties, progressing past the round of 16 for the first time at a major tournament since the 1954 World Cup.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Friday
TV Channel: ITV 1
Venue: Gazprom Arena - Saint Petersburg, Russia
Switzerland 17/4 | Draw 11/4 | Spain 4/6
Spain’s attack is mean
Given they have just scored five goals in back-to-back games, it may seem obvious to say that Spain are one of the best attacking team at the Euros, but their underlying numbers are staggering.
La Furia Roja were creating chances before their goal explosion, racking up a combined 6.07 xGF in matches against Sweden and Poland while scoring just once.
They have since racked up 7.99 xGF and scored 10 times, meaning in total, they have created chances equating to 14.06 xGF while scoring 11 goals.
When we break that down, that equates to 3.52 xGF per game, which is a staggering statistic.
Even more impressive is that they have created 19 non-penalty big chances (0.35 xG or greater), so they aren't racking up their total by taking pot shots from distance, they are carving out clear-cut scoring opportunities.
The Spaniards are gettable defensively
However, while they boast the best attack of any team at Euro 2020 according to expected goals, there is real cause for concern about their defence.
Luis Enrique has issues with his backline. The way in which they blew the 3-1 lead against Croatia was concerning enough, but the underlying numbers highlight bigger issues.
Croatia racked up 3.98 xG as they came from 3-1 down to take the game to extra-time, and in total Spain have allowed 6.56 xGA in the tournament, an average of 1.64 xGA per game.
While that doesn't seem a lot - especially when they are producing more than double that in attack – their xGA total has come from just 24 shots, meaning that the average shot they concede has an xG of 0.27, which is huge.
In fact, 42% of the chances they are conceding are classified as 'big chances' based on xG, meaning that when their opponents do get a chance (which is rare), it does tend to be one with a high probability of being scored.
If Switzerland can create a few opportunities, it is highly likely that they will be good chances, increasing the probability of goals in this match.
Swiss should play with freedom
This is a free hit for Switzerland. It has been over 65 years since they last reached the quarter-final of a major tournament, but they sensationally beat France to set up a tie with Spain.
They played with no fear against the world champions, racking up 2.00 xGF in that game and coming back from the brink.
That level of attacking play isn’t a one-off at Euro 2020 either. They racked up 2.60 xGF against Wales in their group opener, before creating chances equating to 2.31 xGF against Turkey in a 3-1 win.
In total they have averaged 1.79 xGF per game, which shows that they are a very potent attacking side. They can hurt Spain in this game, and should play to attack as they did against France.
Goals should flow
While the Swiss did create plenty against the world champions, they did concede a lot of good chances – 3.48 xGA and five non-penalty big chances to be exact.
Italy had joy against the Swiss too, racking up 2.50 xG and three non-pen big chances, so this is a susceptible backline, and Spain’s attack should have no issues creating in this match.
Two attack-minded teams go head-to-head, with questionable defences at the other end, so it is hugely surprising to see OVER 2.5 GOALS at odds-against.
If Spain continue in the same manner as they have done at this tournament so far, they could well cover the 2.5 goal line themselves, so odds-against is a crazy price given that Switzerland will likely contribute in this game.
Stick with Morata
While he has a tendency to miss glaring chances, the fact he consistently gets into the good scoring positions means Alvaro Morata should be persisted with.
The Juventus forward has scored two at Euro 2020 from chances equating to 4.46 xG, and while some rightly say ‘wasteful finishing’, the fact he is always in the right place means his chances of scoring are higher than many of his teammates.
Morata, playing in an attack-minded Spain side, is averaging a tournament leading 1.21 xG per 95 minutes, meaning that he is getting on the end of 3.5 big chances per game on average.
If that rate continues, his chance of scoring against Switzerland is high, especially with the way the Spanish are playing.
Odds of 17/10 (Unibet) about ALVARO MORATA TO SCORE ANYTIME are wrong in my opinion, he should be closer to 7/5 given he is extremely likely to start and sees more chances per game than anyone at the Euros.
Switzerland v Spain best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 23/20 (Novibet)
- 2pts Alvaro Morata to score anytime at 17/10 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Switzerland1-3 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (29/06/21)
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