It's a must-win game for Poland as they face surprise Group E leaders Sweden in St Petersburg on Wednesday teatime. Michael Beardmore has a best bet and preview.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Sweden v Poland
2pts 6+ Poland corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Group E has hardly been a haven of goalscoring thus far in the European Championship, its four matches registering a paltry total of six goals.
That should change in the final round of games with the group’s bottom two – Spain and Poland – needing to beat Slovakia and Sweden respectively to have any chance of progressing.
In fairness, Poland’s games have been responsible for five of the six goals scored in the group – their 2-1 defeat by Slovakia and 1-1 draw with Spain.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: ITV4
Venue: Saint Petersburg Stadium, St Petersburg
Sweden 9/5 | Draw 21/10 | Poland 8/5
Sweden's four-point tally means they are almost certainly through but in what position? A win in St Petersburg would secure top spot and a potentially much easier last-16 game against a third-placed side than if they finished second or third.
The bookies make the Poles slight favourites but let’s be honest, these countries are ridiculously evenly matched and there can be no degree of certainty over any of the three outright outcomes.
Both sides unsurprisingly lost the expected goals (xG) battle against Spain (Sweden 2.89 - 1.19 and Poland 3.18 - 1.29) but each claimed a point. They both won the xG war against Slovakia (Sweden 2.00 - 0.68 and Poland 1.76 - 0.49), yet while the Swedes triumphed 1-0, the 10-man Poles lost 2-1.
The Swedes soaked up pressure against Spain and improved going forward against Slovakia but are yet to score from open play, Emil Forsberg’s penalty their only goal so far.
They had just 15% possession against Spain and only 42% against the Slovakians – safety first will again be the order of the day given their points haul, and we can expect the needy Poles to boss the ball.
Sweden are yet to concede in the tournament and will likely be tough for the Poles to break down, so there is a lot of sense in looking at the corners markets here.
🤯 No goals between Spain and Sweden but just look at those possession and passing stats!#SWE #SPA #SPASWE #EURO2020 pic.twitter.com/tSIfaPRvFq
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 14, 2021
I was amazed to see 6+ POLAND CORNERS at 6/4 with Sky Bet given that a Sweden side so content to sit back have conceded six flag-kicks in each of their opening two games, including against the limited Slovakians.
Robert Lewandowski and co have to attack, and while Sweden’s sterling defensive efforts thus far make the score and scorer markets a gamble, it would be a surprise if Poland did not force several flag-kicks.
Indeed, 7+ Poland corners is 5/2, 8+ is 9/2 and 9+ 17/2 if you fancy a punt at larger prices – if this game stays level for a long period, as both Sweden’s matches have so far, those look good too.
Sweden v Poland best bet and score prediction
- 6+ Poland corners at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Sweden 1-1 Poland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 2045 BST (21/06/21)
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