Euro 2020 betting tips: Slovakia v Spain best bets and preview
Liam Kelly previews the Group E match-up between Slovakia and Spain, expecting a comfortable win for the 'hosts' in Seville.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Slovakia v Spain
1pt Spain to win by exactly 2 goals at 29/10 (SportNation)
In a rather surprising twist, the top of Group E remains wide open entering the final round of fixtures. Slovakia travel to a sweltering Seville to face a Spain side who sit third in the group after two disappointing draws.
Slovakia come into this game a point ahead of their opponents, but the fate of both teams is in their own hands.
A draw would be enough to secure qualification for the pre-tournament group outsiders, while Spain are in desperate need of a win - possibly for qualification, most definitely for confidence.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: ITV
Venue: Estadio La Cartuja - Seville, Spain
Slovakia 16/1 | Draw 6/1 | Spain 1/6
Slovakia aren't likely to cause many problems from an attacking sense. Stefan Tarkovic's side have yet to look too dangerous at that end in Euro 2020 despite their solid position, creating chances equating to 0.49 expected goals (xG) in the shock win over Poland before a lifeless display in a defeat to Sweden last time out, recording just 0.68 xG.
If those numbers weren't enough to confirm how this match might pan out, the prospect of a draw being enough for Slovakia means it's safe to assume this game will be almost identical to Spain's prior two fixtures.
Luis Enrique's side have completely dominated both, hogging possession and scoring opportunities against Sweden and Poland without producing the results. The question is, can Spain take advantage of a likely similar output here?
Spain have scored only one goal from chances equating to 6.07 xG thus far, failing to finish the barrage of chances they are creating — a huge part of the frustrations surrounding the nation's performance in Euro 2020.
It would be one thing if Spain were guilty of logging empty possession, but they are clearly a top side that are suffering from a mix of wasteful finishing and negative variance.
🇪🇸 Spain in two games at #Euro2020:
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 19, 2021
📊 Expected Goals: 6.06 (Top)
💥 Shots: 28 (5th most)
🎯 Shots on target: 10 (4th most)
😯 Passes: 1700 (Most by 375)
⚽️ Goals: 1
🤝 Draws: 2
😲 No other team have exceeded an xG of six so far & only Netherlands are above five (5.6)!#ESP pic.twitter.com/9R7sUu7PK1
If La Roja continue to perform in such a manner, the goals should come, and I expect it to happen in this match-up. As a result, SPAIN TO WIN BY EXACTLY 2 GOALS makes appeal at a tempting price.
A comfortable victory is to be expected given the prices of the teams, but factoring in the unbearable heat this game will be played in, as well as the nature of Spain's possession football, it's unlikely the 'home' side will look to do more than what is required in Seville.
Spain's defence is an issue, too. They are limiting their opponents to few shots, but an average of 0.28 expected goals against (xGA) per shot is an alarming figure, making a the winning margin a smarter play than including a probable Spain clean sheet to bets.
Slovakia v Spain best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Spain to win by exactly 2 goals at 29/10 (SportNation)
Score prediction: Slovakia 0-2 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct 1020 BST (21/06/21)
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