It's all to play for still in Group B as Russia and Denmark meet in Copenhagen. Jake Osgathorpe previews the clash, selecting a best bet.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Russia v Denmark
2pts Denmark to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8 (Bet365, Boylesports)
Group B is set up to be the most intriguing of all groups when the final round of games gets underway, with a high possibility that Denmark, Finland and Russia will finish on three points.
If that were to be the case, head-to-head record would be used, but for them all to finish on three points, they will have all beaten each other.
In that case, it goes on goal difference, which does mean that winless Denmark would most likely finish second by beating Russia, though a two-goal victory or higher scoring one goal victory (eg 2-1) would be required.
Right, so that’s the permutations of what could happen, now to look at what will happen.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: BBC Two
Venue: Parken Stadium - Copenhagen, Denmark
Russia 17/4 | Draw 11/4 | Denmark 4/6
Russia have been poor
2018 World Cup quarter finalists Russia have been extremely poor at Euro 2020.
They were thumped by Belgium in front of their own fans, failing to lay a glove on the number one ranked side in the world (xG: BEL 1.56 – 0.34 RUS).
Against the weakest team in the group, Finland, they scraped to a 1-0 win in unconvincing fashion, again struggling to create chances, lacking fluidity and composure all over the pitch (xG: FIN 0.88 – 1.08 RUS).
That game was one of the lower-quality contests we have seen so far in the competition, with both sides really struggling to string passes together and sustain attacks.
Given what we have seen from Russia, they appear to be a cut below Denmark and Belgium.
Danes have been unlucky
Denmark have been the most unfortunate team at Euro 2020 so far. The Danes have won the xG battle in both of their contests by a wide margin.
They conceded just one shot against Finland in an emotionally draining loss while racking up 2.09 xG, while they were excellent against Belgium only to be undone by two excellent goals (xG: DEN 2.24 – 0.79 BEL).
All of this means that Denmark sit top of Infogol’s Group B xG table having accumulated the most expected points through two matches.
This tells us that they are playing to an excellent level and have just been unlucky in games.
If they continue to play at the same level in this game, Denmark will get the result their performance deserves and will likely secure qualification as a second-place team.
Get the 'hosts' onside
With this being played in Copenhagen, Denmark, that is another huge plus in the column of the Danes, with another raucous crowd likely to be cheering on a Danish win.
Russia are a poor team, and while they know a draw is enough, I can’t see them keeping an all-out-attacking Denmark team at bay for 90 minutes.
If the Danes do grab the opening goal, Russia then have to go for it themselves, but given the toothless performances they have put in so far, I am far less confident about their chances of breaching what has been a stubborn Denmark backline.
DENMARK TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS appeals greatly in this one, with the Danes seen as a class above Russia even without their star man.
Expect another dominant performance, though this time, De rød-hvide take the chances they create and qualify as runners-up.
Russia v Denmark best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Denmark to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/8 (Bet365, Boylesports)
Score prediction: Russia 0-2 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (18/06/21)
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