Portugal hope to join France in the last 16 when the two meet in Budapest in their final group game on Wednesday evening. Mark O'Haire is on hand to preview the Group F clash.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Portugal v France
1pt Kylian Mbappe to score at anytime (23/10 General)
0.5pts Kylian Mbappe to assist 1+ goals (9/2 Sky Bet)
0.5pts Kylian Mbappe to score and assist a goal (18/1 Sky Bet)
0.5pts Nelson Semedo to be carded (13/2 Bet365)
The ‘Group of Death’ comes to a close on Wednesday night with World Cup winners and pre-tournament favourites France taking on defending European champions Portugal.
Les Blues have already booked their place in the last-16, whilst the Selecao can join Didier Deschamps’s outfit in the knockout stage should they avoid a heavy defeat in Budapest.
Top Group F honours remains in the balance and France will be keen to solidify their position at the top of the pool following a disappointing draw with Hungary. With Germany hosting the outsiders in Munich in the group’s other curtain-closer, Les Blues will know victory here is imperative to seal their position at the top of the tree.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Puskas Arena - Budapest, Hungary
Portugal 11/4 | Draw 2/1 | France 6/5
Having opened their account with a 1-0 triumph in Germany via a Mats Hummels own goal, France were praised for controlling the contest, whilst offering a serious threat on the counter-attack. Deschamps’s troops were therefore expected to sweep Hungary aside, but the world champions struggled to create clear-cut opportunities despite dominating.
The liveliest performer was once again Kylian Mbappe. France had seven shots in the first half against Hungary with Mbappe involved in the first six. The Paris Saint-Germain striker had four attempts and created two chances for team-mates, including a cushioned flick into the path of fellow forward Karim Benzema, who skewed his presentable half-volley wide.
Operating as a lead striker in France’s new-look 4-3-1-2 system, Mbappe’s heatmap across the first two fixtures show the 22-year-old is still keen to drift out to the left flank, using his searing speed as a weapon in transitions and take-ons against back-peddling defenders. It’s an area I’m keen to explore from a punting perspective against Portugal.
The Selecao were made to look ordinary against a rampant Germany. Exposed, overawed and undermanned on the flanks; Fernando Santos’ side couldn’t cope with wing-backs Robin Gosens and Joshua Kimmich. Right-back Nelson Semedo was having a particularly torrid time and his presence will only encourage an influential Mbappe on Wednesday evening.
Semedo has been ruthlessly exposed by players of pace on the biggest stages - Alphonso Davies and Vinicius Jr come to mind – and the Wolves man is undoubtedly an area of weakness that France will look to target. That means plenty of traffic down the Portuguese right with Mbappe the standout option for Les Blues.
I’m therefore going to propose four plays for the Budapest battle, all centering around the same angle of attack. With a sensible staking system, we’ll profit should just one of the four fancies come to fruition, starting with Kylian Mbappe to score at anytime (23/10).
Mbappe has already had seven attempts (two on-target) from opportunities accumulating to over 1.00 Expected Goals (xG), as well as seeing a goal ruled out for offside. Having scored 46 goals across 59 outings in all competitions during 2020/21 – notching every 115 minutes on average – the Parisian ace is due one.
The 9/2 (Sky Bet) on Mbappe to assist a goal also appeals.
His pace, movement and dribbling ability is hard to handle at the best of times, and already at Euro 2020 he’s provided key passes and potential assists to star-studded teammates. The implied odds suggest just an 18% chance, although the Frenchman has accumulated 0.52 Expected Assists (xA) thus far.
Combining the two above plays - Kylian Mbappe to score and assist a goal – is an interesting longer shot at 18/1 (Sky Bet), whilst the aforementioned Nelson Semedo to be carded (13/2 Bet365) also appears a little too big to ignore.
The Wolves defender isn’t a regular in the book but prominent in the tackles and fouls rankings and will face few tougher opponents.
Portugal v France best bets and score prediction
1pt on Kylian Mbappe to score at anytime (9/4 SkyBet)
0.5pts on Kylian Mbappe to assist 1+ goals (9/2 SkyBet)
0.5pts on Kylian Mbappe to score and assist a goal (18/1 SkyBet)
0.5pts on Nelson Semedo to be carded (13/2 Bet365)
Score prediction: Portugal 1-2 France (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1100 BST (22/06/21)
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