The first semi-final of Euro 2020 sees Italy and Spain lock horns at Wembley. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Italy v Spain
1pt Italy to win in 90 minutes at 6/4 (General)
0.5pts Giorgio Chiellini to have 1+ shots on target at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Sporting Life followers can sit back and watch this match unfold safe in the knowledge that whatever happens, had they followed our outright tips, they would be guaranteed a Euro 2020 finalist.
Italy and Spain were our two ante-post tips, and given they were put up as each-way selections, anyone who backed them in such a way will be guaranteed a payout come July 11.
There remains the small matter of the actual semi-final however, and if it reaches anywhere close to the standard of Italy’s previous match, a scintillating 2-1 win over Belgium, then we are all in for yet another feast of top-quality football.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
Italy 7/5 | Draw 11/5 | Spain 2/1
Italy were simply magnificent in that game, playing aggressive, front-foot football, pressing a hugely talented Belgium team to within an inch of their lives.
The fact that Axel Witsel and Youri Tielemans, two of the most accomplished midfielders in European football, just could not get a second on the ball, is testament to just how fit, how hungry and how well-drilled this Italy team are.
A Romelu Lukaku penalty on the stroke of half-time changed the dynamic of the game slightly, but in truth, it was a contentious decision and Italy should have been in cruise control by that point, by far the more dominant team and continuing to create plenty of chances.
Belgium did have chances in the second half, but a mixture of gladiatorial defending and poor finishing meant that the Italians safely navigated their way into the semi-finals, and to be honest, given how good they have been at the tournament so far, it would have been a huge shame had they not.
That these two meet in the semi-finals is somewhat fitting, particularly given how little either nation were fancied prior to the tournament.
Parallels between Italy and Spain
Spain have proved plenty of people wrong at this tournament, and they have been good going forward, even considering all of Alvaro Morata’s misses, but they needed extra time to beat Croatia after letting a two-goal lead slip, and penalties to beat Switzerland, who played the entirety of extra-time with ten men.
Spain, like Italy, have undergone a rejuvenation under Luis Enrique, the former Barcelona manager purging the team of the torments of recent tournaments, while making a concerted effort to move away from tiki-taka football.
This Spain team, while they do dominate possession, are not intent on playing through the lines, but rather to progress the ball up the pitch and into wide areas before pummeling their opponents with cross after cross – no team have attempted more crosses than Spain’s 140 at this tournament (Denmark are second on 116).
Interestingly though, the style of play that Enrique has been desperate to move on from, would perhaps have been the very thing to try and halt this juggernaut of an Italian side.
The speed and ferocity with which the Italians press means you need incredibly composed defenders and midfields, players who are brave enough to play through the press, and while Spain certainly have some immaculate ball players, whether they can handle the type of incessant pressure that the Italians are sure to put them under remains to be seen.
Italy the team to beat
It is no secret that Italy have been the team of the tournament so far, and they are certainly the team to beat as far as both this match and the competition as a whole is concerned, so it is a little surprising to see them available at as big as 6/4 to win this match in 90 minutes.
Against Belgium, I actually tipped against the Italians purely on the basis that a price of 5/4 for the Azzurri, and a price of 12/5 for Belgium seemed too big a disparity – Belgium were after all the number one ranked side in the world.
But Italy completely overran Roberto Martinez’s team, and given Spain are arguably not at the level of the Red Devils, surely the Italians should be shorter in the betting to win this match.
They are not, they are bigger. Bigger to beat Spain than they were to beat Belgium.
Consider as well the fact that Spain arrive at Wembley on the back of two consecutive 120 minute matches, having had to travel to Copenhagen and Russia for those two games, Italy certainly have the upper hand in that respect.
In fact, Roberto Mancini’s side have the upper hand in almost every respect, and that means siding with ITALY TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES at a price of 6/4 is the headline tip for this match.
Target Spain's vulnerability from set-pieces
If you are looking for a bigger priced selection however, it could be worth delving into the player shots markets, and one player that particularly stands out is Giorgio Chiellini.
Spain have looked consistently vulnerable at the back throughout the tournament, particularly when defending set-pieces, and that means backing GIORGIO CHIELLINI TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET at a boosted price of 15/2 with Sky Bet makes plenty of appeal.
Chiellini has already had one shot on target in the competition, as well as having one off target, and considering he has only played 216 minutes, perhaps his price should be a little shorter, particularly considering his centre-half partner Leonardo Bonucci is a much shorter price to hit the target.
Italy v Spain best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Italy to win in 90 minutes at 6/4 (General)
- 0.5pts Giorgio Chiellini to have 1+ shots on target at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Italy 2-0 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (30/06/21)
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