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Euro 2020 betting tips: Germany v Hungary best bets and preview
Germany still have a chance of topping Group F when they face Hungary and Tom Carnduff has three best bets to back.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Germany v Hungary
1pt Leon Goretzka to score from outside the area at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Leon Goretzka to have 1+ assists at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Robin Gosens to have 1+ assists at 9/2 (Betfair)
I had major doubts about Germany heading into this tournament and I know I wasn't the only one - a nation hammered by Spain in the Nations League and one that suffered a shock home loss to North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying.
They've bounced back though with an entertaining 4-2 victory over Portugal and even in defeat to France in their opening game, the expected goals scoreline sitting at 1.09 - 0.32 in their favour shows that they could have had more.
Hungary stunned the current world champions with a 1-1 draw on Sunday but the xG being stacked in France's favour perhaps highlights that they should have left empty-handed. They won't have the capacity Budapest crowd behind them either with this contest taking place in Munich - that will be a big loss for the underdogs.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BBC Two
Venue: Allianz Arena - Munich, Germany
Germany 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Hungary 14/1
Victory could be significant for Germany in their quest to secure the trophy. A win here combined with France failing to beat Portugal will see them top the group which should give them an 'easier' route to the final.
Even without a win, their chances of progression remain strong given Portugal's clash with France and the fact that they could go through on goal difference/head-to-head. Make no mistake though, at 1/6, anything less than six points on the board at the end of the group stage will be viewed as a major disappointment.
The one issue for Germany is that they are facing injury issues to a few of their starting XI. Ilkay Gundogan, Mats Hummels and Thomas Muller all didn't train on Monday - it's reported that the latter could even miss the round of 16 tie should they get that far.
What that does mean is a likely return to the XI for Leon Goretzka and that will be a welcome addition for Germany. The Bayern midfielder has enjoyed another strong season and he can now make an impact at the Euros.
With less than 2/1 available on him to score anytime, the value can be found in the 12/1 with Sky Bet on GORETZKA TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA. He had an effort from range go just over the crossbar after coming off the bench against Portugal - if it was on target it would have surely gone in with the pace behind it.
It's a big price considering that two of his five Bundesliga goals this season came from outside the area. While we're used to seeing him drive into the box and strike with limited opportunity, he has demonstrated in the past that he can score from range and it's a more appealing play than the low odds on him striking anytime.
Goretzka finished the Bundesliga season with 42 shots from 24 appearances (18 starts) and he also saw ten shots from seven Champions League games. When it comes to attacking intent, the midfielder has it for both club and country.
A number of bookmakers have now opened the assist market in most matches and the prices vary from anything from 2/1 to 5/1 on GORETZKA TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS on Tuesday night. While the best price is obviously preferred, all options remain value given how fancied Germany are in this contest.
Regardless of where he is on the pitch, Goretzka has shown his creativity and ability to gain assists when playing for Bayern. He finished the season with nine assists in Bundesliga and Champions League games.
Playing further forward is obviously beneficial for any goal-based bet and he hinted on media duty that he could replace the injured Muller at CAM.
"In many ways, his position for the national team is similar to mine," Goretzka said. "It's a position I've played in before for the national team, and I'm ready to help the team. The tournament can really begin for me now."
He got two assists when lining up in a more central/advanced midfield role with Germany playing a 4-3-3 against Ukraine in the Nations League victory back in November and taking the 'Muller role' in this game will only serve to benefit the potential for an assist. Goretzka seems the most suitable replacement for him in the squad.
Staying with the assists market as the final bet in this game and it's difficult to turn down the 9/2 with Betfair on ROBIN GOSENS TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS after his showing against Portugal. He picked up the man of the match award with a goal and two helpers following a dominant performance down the left.
It's hardly a surprise to see that sort of impact when we factor in the eight assists he registered for Atalanta this season and the fact that Germany's back-three system suits him perfectly.
However, what we are seeing is Die Mannschaft relying on the width of Gosens and Joshua Kimmich. It's an effective way of playing this system and that's why both wing-backs got two assists each in the win over Portugal. The price is too big considering his attacking output so far.
Germany v Hungary best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to score from outside the area at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to have 1+ assists at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
- 1pt Robin Gosens to have 1+ assists at 9/2 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Germany 2-0 Hungary (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1810 BST (21/06/21)
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