Finland travel to face Russia in what is a must-win match for the hosts. Jake Pearson previews the match, picking out two best bets and a score prediction.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Finland v Russia
1pt Both Teams to Score at 16/11 (RedZone)
2pts Under 40 booking points at 8/11 (SkyBet)
This is an incredibly difficult match to predict. Russia were extremely poor in their opener against Belgium, while it is tough to glean much from Finland’s 1-0 win over Denmark considering the circumstances.
That win for the Finns puts them in a very good position in terms of actually qualifying for the knockout stages, particularly with the four best third-placed teams making it out of the group stage, and it makes this game all the more important for a Russia side who prop up Group B after the opening round of fixtures.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Gazprom Arena - Saint Petersburg, Russia
Finland 21/4 | Draw 13/5 | Russia 8/13
It is easy to get carried away with how disappointing Russia were against Belgium, but it must be remembered that they were playing one of the best teams in the world, the best if you put any stock in the FIFA rankings, so any rush to take the Russians on would probably be best avoided.
Russia struggled to create anything of note against Belgium, with the Expected Goals total for the game reading BEL 1.56 - 0.34 RUS, but again, they were playing Belgium, and that performance was not really in keeping with the performances they have been producing over the last year or so.
Stanislav Cherchesov’s side scored 33 goals in qualifying, a tally only Italy, England and Belgium bettered, while in the Nations League, Russia averaged 1.5 goals per game.
Given the need for Russia to come away with all three points, as well as the fact that they have home field advantage, the game being played in Saint Petersburg, they will have no choice but to take the game to Finland.
Russia scored in every single match in qualifying, including twice against Belgium, so it would be a major shock if they did not find the net against this Finland team. The question then is, can Finland reply?
Finland’s game against Denmark was hardly a match laden with chances, but the Finns did show a clinical edge, Joel Pohjanpalo of Union Berlin scoring the winning goal, and with Teemu Pukki also in the side, there is certainly a goal to be had for Finland in this match.
Given the need for Russia to win the match as well, there could be plenty of space on the counter attack for Finland, something Pukki in particular excels at exploiting.
Both Teams to Score landed in five of the first ten matches at this tournament, which is relatively high given what is at stake, so a big price of 16/11 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE in this game makes plenty of appeal, though the 7/5 available with a couple of firms also appears to be value.
Value in the cards market
There is another bet that catches the eye in this fixture though, and if you are not averse to backing odds-on shots, then delving into the card markets is highly recommended.
The line for bookings in this match is 3.5, with unders heavily fancied at around 4/7, meaning the bookmakers are forecasting three or fewer cards in this match.
Sky Bet do not offer betting on amount of cards but offer betting on booking points, and their price of 8/11 about UNDER 40 BOOKING POINTS is too big in comparison with the rest of the market.
Consider as well that only one match in this tournament (at the time of writing) has seen more than three cards in one match, while only two matches so far have actually gone over 40 booking points.
There were no cards dished out in Russia’s opening match against Belgium, while Finland’s game against Denmark saw just two yellows. It may be odds-on, but it is a good bet.
Finland v Russia best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score at 16/11 (RedZone)
- 2pts Under 40 booking points at 8/11 (SkyBet)
Score prediction: Finland 1-2 Russia (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1000 BST (14/06/21)
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