Liam Kelly previews the opening Group B game in Copenhagen, forecasting a solid performance from the 'hosts'.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Denmark v Finland
2pts Denmark to win to nil at 13/10 (Bet365)
Denmark kick-off the Group B action amid home comforts, playing the first of three opening stage matches at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, an added boost in what looks a competitive group.
They face the weakest opposition in the opener, hosting fellow Nordic nation Finland — a match-up which is unlikely to produce a high level of entertainment.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Parken Stadium - Copenhagen, Denmark
Home 4/9 | Draw 3/1 | Away 7/1
Denmark defence one to fear
Undoubtedly, Denmark's strength is their solid spine, boasting a number of excellent players in both central defence and central midfield. Their qualifying campaign showed as much, limiting their opponents to an average of 0.65 expected goals against (xGA) en route to conceding just six goals in eight matches.
While some time has passed since then, the Danes have displayed the same trait in their most recent matches, keeping three clean sheets in the World Cup qualifiers in March, before two solid performances in warm-up games against Germany (1-1) and Bosnia & Herzegovina (2-0).
Denmark's defensive solidity enables them to compete at a high level, losing only three of their last 34 competitive games in international football, twice to Belgium, and to Croatia on penalties in the 2018 World Cup round of 16.
As a result, it's unsurprising to see an experienced Denmark side as heavy favourites in this game, maybe even a live outsider to go far in the competition.
Finland make history
Finland, on the other hand, are unlikely to progress past the group stage, appearing in their first ever major tournament.
Markku Kanerva’s side are an organised bunch, but, despite possessing talents such as Teemu Pukki and Marcus Forss, they find it difficult to trouble opposition defences, mainly due to their intent on staying tactically sound.
Although Finland created 18.7 expected goals for (xGF) in their successful qualifying campaign, 64% of that total was recorded against minnows Armenia and Liechtenstein. They registered an average of just 1.15 xGF per game against Greece, Bosnia & Herzegovina and Italy, highlighting their issues going forward.
Finland have kept 13 clean sheets in their last 24 competitive games, so they do possess the ability to frustrate Denmark, but three defeats in their three warm-up friendlies hardly instils confidence.
Therefore, I'm happy to side with DENMARK TO WIN TO NIL in the Group B curtain-raiser thanks to the mix of an outstanding Denmark defence and an unspectacular Finnish attack.
At a standout 13/10, there is good value to be had on the 'hosts', despite the prospect of an underwhelming game on Saturday evening.
Denmark v Finland best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Denmark to win to nil at 13/10 (Bet365)
Score prediction: Denmark 2-0 Finland (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1330 BST (08/06/21)
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