Liam Kelly provides a best bet for the round of 16 tie between Croatia and Spain, forecasting a dominant performance from Luis Enrique's side in Copenhagen.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Croatia v Spain
2pts Spain to win with -1 handicap in 90 minutes at 7/4 (SportNation)
2018 World Cup finalists Croatia and the new-look Spain face off in Copenhagen off the back of important wins, each making the last 16 as a consequence.
Although this might seem one of the closer match-ups in the first knockout round, the underlying numbers posted by Croatia and Spain in this tournament suggest this might be more one-sided than at first glance.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: ITV 1
Venue: Parken Stadium - Copenhagen, Denmark
Croatia 9/2 | Draw 14/5 | Spain 8/13
Croatia enter the round of 16 on the back of a 3-1 win over Scotland that was inspired by Luka Modric magic, qualifying for this stage by finishing second in Group D.
Ingenuity from an aging core has been their saving grace in Euro 2020, with Ivan Perisic and Modric scoring spectacular - and crucial - goals in big moments. Otherwise, Croatia have been underwhelming.
A narrow defeat to England followed by a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic and a comfortable looking victory could sway you into thinking Croatia are still a team to feared, but expected goals (xG) data offers better insight into how good Croatia actually are.
Zlatko Dalic's side lost the xG battle in each of their fixtures in the group stage, holding a fairly poor -2.18 expected goal difference (xGD), the worst figure of any team left in the competition.
Spain, on the other hand, recorded the best expected goal difference (+7.1 xGD), seemingly performing at a different level to their upcoming opponents despite competing in a reasonably facile group.
The story of their tournament heading into the vital match with Slovakia was wasteful finishing, as Luis Enrique's side scored just one goal from chances equating 6.07 xG in games against Sweden and Poland.
La Roja cashed in some xG chips against Slovakia, though, winning 5-0 and putting in another impressive display based on the underlying numbers (xG: SLO 0.10 - 3.63 ESP).
👏 A superb performance from Spain and it's been coming.
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) June 23, 2021
• (2.89 xG) #ESP 0-0 #SWE (1.19 xG)
• (3.18 xG) #ESP 1-1 #POL (1.29 xG)
• (0.11 xG) #SVK 0-5 #ESP (3.50 xG) pic.twitter.com/SM5YmBEO4B
If they continue in the same vein in the knockout stages, Spain could prove to be a real contender for Euro 2020.
As a result, I'm happy to side with SPAIN to cover the -1 HANDICAP here. The sheer gulf in class between these teams has been a little overlooked by the bookmakers, Croatia benefitting from past success, while some of Spain's recent results haven't matched their outstanding production.
Spain are allowing opponents a high average of 0.22 xG per shot, so they may concede a big chance, but I think they have more than enough class to win with a handicap even if Croatia nick a goal in Copenhagen.
Croatia have have hardly pulled up trees from an attacking standpoint, though, averaging 0.88 expected goals for (xGF) per game across their three matches. They shouldn't trouble a Spain side that are in much better form than people think.
Croatia v Spain best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Spain to win with -1 handicap in 90 minutes at 7/4 (SportNation)
Score prediction: Croatia 1-3 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct 1400 BST (25/06/2021)
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