With Euro 2020 rapidly approaching, value hunter Jake Pearson previews the tournament, picking out a couple of best bets to lift the trophy, and one rank outsider to reach the semi-finals.
Football betting tips: Euro 2020
2pts e.w Italy to win Euro 2020 at 11/1 (General, 1/2 1,2)
2pts e.w Spain to win Euro 2020 at 9/1 (Unibet, 1/2 1,2)
1pt Turkey to reach the semi-finals at 9/1 (Sky Bet)
Who will win Euro 2020? England. Preview over.
Unfortunately, the word count needs to be higher than eight, so here’s why England may, or may not, win Euro 2020, and who could offer value if the Three Lions, once again, forget to bring football home.
Euro 2020 winner (via Sky Bet)
- England, France - 9/2
- Belgium - 6/1
- Germany, Portugal, Spain - 8/1
- Italy - 10/1
- Netherlands - 11/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
Removing the deadwood
Combining the best possible price for each team to win Euro 2020 from all major British bookmakers still gives us a book of just over 105%, which makes it difficult to identify value, but not impossible.
The first thing to do is to cull the extra 5% that the bookmakers have so kindly applied, and the best way to do this is to remove the no-hopers from contention straight away.
Scotland, Wales, Russia, Czech Republic, Austria, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, Finland and North Macedonia are the first to bite the dust, not purely because they are at the bottom of the betting, but because their double, and in some cases triple-figure prices, still do not accurately represent their chances of winning a tournament like this.
The shock 2004 triumph of Greece, and Denmark’s victory in 1992 means it is difficult to completely dismiss outsiders, but we can pit their best possible price against the price they are on the Betfair Exchange, and the likes of Switzerland, Sweden, and even Poland, despite Robert Lewandowski, look to offer no value at all at 80/1, so they can also be removed from contention.
Now we have successfully culled 13 teams, we are left with the eight major nations, which we will come onto shortly, and three nations we feel could have outside hopes.
Turkey best big-priced option
Croatia (40/1), Denmark (33/1) and Turkey (66/1) are all worthy of consideration.
The Croats arrive here as World Cup runners-up, but they stuttered through qualifying somewhat, winning just five of their eight matches. Their recent form has left plenty to be desired, failing to win either of their three matches during the November international break, as well as losing 1-0 to Slovenia in their opening game of World Cup qualifying.
Of course, Croatia still have plenty of world-class players, but they are an ageing squad, and are in the unfavourable side of the draw, so can be ignored despite their enticing price. That leaves Denmark and TURKEY.
Denmark look to be a decent enough price at 33s, but it is Turkey who catch my eye even more, particularly given the two could meet in the last 16.
Turkey have been impressive recently, qualifying in second place behind world champions France, beating Didier Deschamps’ side in the process, and have started their World Cup qualification campaign in similar fashion, shellacking the Netherlands and Norway before drawing with Latvia.
Though Turkey have conceded a fair few goals in recent matches, they do have plenty of quality players at the back, with the likes of Leicester City's Caglar Soyuncu and Liverpool's much-improved Ozan Kabak at the heart of their defence.
Going forward they are hardly short on ability either, with Hakan Calhanoglu, arguably Turkey's best player for a number of years now, having enjoyed a terrific season with AC Milan this term, scoring four goals and providing a further nine assists in Serie A.
Striker Burak Yilmaz has also had a fantastic season, his 16 goals in Ligue 1 firing Lille to their first league title since 2010/11, and he will be a big danger at this year's competition.
All groups pose their own individual difficulties, but Turkey cannot complain too much about being drawn in Group A. Undoubtedly, their toughest opponents will be Italy, who they face in the opening match of the tournament, but Senol Gunes and his men may feel they are a better side than Switzerland and Wales, and will be confident of filling that second spot behind Roberto Mancini's men.
Group A winner (via Sky Bet)
- Italy - 8/15
- Switzerland - 9/2
- Turkey - 5/1
- Wales - 8/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
Assuming Turkey do finish second in their group, they will likely meet Denmark in the Round of 16, and if they win that, their most likely opponents in the quarter-finals would be the Netherlands, who they recently beat 4-2.
TURKEY TO REACH THE SEMI-FINAL does not look a bad bet at 9/1.
For the thrill-seekers amongst you, it could be worth having a bit on Turkey to win the whole thing at 66/1, or at least back them each-way, but the reason it makes more sense to back them to reach the semis at 9/1 is the level of opposition they are likely to face really ramps up at that stage.
Provided they win their quarter-final, their likely opponents in the semis would be one of England, Spain, Portugal, France or Germany, and for all Turkey are a much-improved nation, they still have a little way to go to be dining at that sort of table.
The big guns to avoid
There are eight teams in with a huge chance of becoming European champions.
It is difficult to get behind a Netherlands side managed by Frank de Boer, a man Jose Mourinho labelled “the worst manager in Premier League history” following De Boer’s four games at Crystal Palace.
Group C winner (via Sky Bet)
- Netherlands - 2/5
- Ukraine - 7/2
- Austria - 6/1
- North Macedonia - 28/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
The Netherlands do have a favourable draw, in a group with Austria, North Macedonia and Ukraine, but a price of 12/1 hardly represents the true chances of a team that have been underachieving for a while now, and the same can be said about Germany, who have drafted back in many of the players Joachim Low had previously deemed surplus to requirement, Thomas Muller the notable inclusion.
The "Group of Death"
A 2-1 defeat by North Macedonia in World Cup qualifying caused a national inquest; Germany cannot represent value at this tournament, particularly given they have been drawn in the "group of death", Group F comprising of themselves, France, Portugal and Hungary.
Defending champions Portugal are undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with and they are guided by Fernando Santos, a manager full of international nous. But their draw alongside Germany in Group F makes them tough to back, particularly as they are nowhere near as big as when they won in 2016.
At the head of the market are France, and for all the brilliant players at Didier Deschamps’ disposal, they are surely a team to take on.
Group F winner (via Sky Bet)
- Germany - 11/8
- France - 13/8
- Portugal - 11/4
- Hungary - 33/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
Of course, they are world champions, and deservedly so, but they have the unique ability to implode when calm is needed – see Patrice Evra in 2010 – and France being France, instead of maintaining the harmonic vibes around the camp, they have decided to spice things up a bit by welcoming the formerly banished Karim Benzema.
The long and short of it is, France are too much of a risk considering how short a price they are, particularly given how tough a group they have been drawn in.
Can England win Euro 2020?
England are now the favourites for Euro 2020 with some firms, and for all you may scoff, there are few nations that have the depth in quality that Gareth Southgate has at his disposal.
Though England are strongly fancied to finish top of their group, comprising of Croatia, Czech Republic and Scotland, the reason for siding against England would be their difficult draw, likely to play either France, Germany or Portugal in the round of 16; unless they finish second in the group (wink, wink Gareth).
I wouldn’t want to put anyone off backing England, and would be far from shocked if they did end up lifting the trophy, but the schedule does seem to be specifically designed to ensure the Three Lions endure the toughest possible route to the final.
Group D winner (via Sky Bet)
- England - 4/11
- Croatia - 3/1
- Czech Republic - 12/1
- Scotland - 16/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
The opposite can be said of Belgium. Roberto Martinez’s men’s are drawn in a comfortable group, up against Denmark, Finland and Russia, and their first real test is likely to be against Italy in the quarter-finals. Belgium have world-class talent at their disposal, but there is so much pressure on their 'golden generation' to deliver a first major trophy it could play to their disadvantage.
Most importantly though, they are painfully short.
Who to back to win Euro 2020
SPAIN and ITALY both make plenty of appeal.
The reason these two in particular stand out and are both worth backing is, if both sides win their group – which they should – they cannot meet each other until the final, and if you have two sides in the final, you’ve won.
Italy have been magnificent under Roberto Mancini, winning all 10 qualifying matches, and in fact, the Azzuri haven’t lost an international match since September 2018. They may not win by much, but at a major tournament, that does not really matter.
Portugal won just one of seven matches in 90 minutes in the last edition of this tournament, drawing six, so winning matches and blowing away your opponents is not a must, and this is something Italy can thrive on, winning football matches like the Italy of old, and potentially claiming the ultimate prize at the end of it.
This Italy side is hardly full of star names, but that is one of the reasons they have been so successful under Mancini, their recent unbeaten run speaking for itself.
Defensively, there really isn't much to say; they are solid.
Midfield-wise, in Marco Verratti they have one of the best central midfielders in the world, and with Jorginho and either of Nicolo Barella - a stalwart of Inter's title winning team this season - or Manuel Locatelli also in the mix, plenty of teams will find it extremely difficult to win the midfield battle against Italy.
In attack they have the immortal Ciro Immobile and Andrea Bellotti as striking options, but out wide they also have a plethora of talent, with Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Bernardeschi and Domenico Berardi likely to provide plenty of threat, while Federico Chiesa has been one of the shining lights in what has been a poor season for Juventus, his performance against Porto in the Champions League particularly impressive.
Italy do not have the toughest draw, facing Turkey, Switzerland and Wales in Group A, and their first knockout match is likely to be against Austria or Ukraine.
The 11/1 about Italy looks a big price for a team so imperious over the past three years, and that has conceded just three goals in 15 matches. Backing ITALY TO WIN EURO 2020 is our first outright selection, something I'm very happy to take each-way, meaning a place in the final delivers a 6/1 winner.
Onto Spain then, and though Luis Enrique's side haven't really had a say in a major tournament since winning this competition in 2012, their rebuild looks to be almost complete, and they themselves look a big price at 9/1.
Spain will be hugely disappointed if they do not win Group E, facing Poland, Sweden and Slovakia, and topping the group means they will play one of the best third-placed teams in the Round of 16.
Group E winner (via Sky Bet)
- Spain - 2/5
- Sweden - 5/1
- Poland - 11/2
- Slovakia - 14/1
Odds correct at 0730 BST (04/06/2021)
Nobody will want to meet Spain in the knockout stages, and for all that their quarter-final, should they get there, could potentially be against England, Germany, France or Portugal, their semi-final would be much more favourable; likely to play either Turkey, Holland or Denmark.
There have been some odd decisions made by Luis Enrique with regards to his squad selection, Sergio Ramos missing out the obvious headline, but he has been replaced by Aymeric Laporte, which hardly a huge downgrade.
As far as the midfield goes, Spain look as imperious as ever, with headline names Thiago Alcantara and Sergio Busquets joined by a raft of players that have enjoyed terrific seasons; Marcos Llorente for Atletico Madrid in particular playing a huge part in their title-winning campaign, reinventing himself as one of the best attacking midfielders in Spain this season.
Alvaro Morata currently looks to be Spain's first-choice striker, but Gerard Moreno must also be in with a shout, having finished third top scorer in La Liga this season - only Lionel Messi and Karim Benzeman have scored more goals in the Spanish top flight.
Spain also have the option of playing with a false nine, with Ferran Torres more than capable of occupying that position, so can mix things up and keep their opponents guessing.
Their price implies just a 10% chance that they will emerge victorious, but that may not be an accurate representation, looking a little on the low side, which means backing SPAIN TO WIN EURO 2020 is a smart bet - again one we can take each-way at a nice price.
However they choose to play, Spain certainly have plenty of firepower, as well as some of the best midfield players on the planet, and they could have been drastically underestimated in the betting.
In conclusion, though those sides at the head of the market are undoubtedly strong, holes can be picked in each and every nation, which makes backing Italy and Spain at slightly bigger prices the way to go in the European Championship.
Odds correct 0730 GMT (04/06/21)
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