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Euro 2020 final best bets and nap: Italy v England
Italy play England in the final of Euro 2020, and our team have each picked out a best bet for the match, including a nap of the day.
Football betting tips: Euro 2020 final nap
1pt Under 8 corners in 90 minutes at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Jake Pearson
- Under 8 corners in 90 minutes at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Italy have averaged 4.67 corners per match so far, England have averaged 4, while Italy have conceded an average of 3.83 corners per match compared to England’s 3.5.
Consider also that half the games involving these two sides at the tournament so far have seen less than eight corners, while only two of the six knockout matches involving Italy and England have seen eight or more, and backing UNDER 8 CORNERS in the match begins to make plenty of appeal.
Mark O'Haire
- Draw and Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 12/5 (Bet365)
Major tournament finals tend to be tight affairs. Going back to Euro ’96, three of the last six European Championship finales finished all-square after 90 minutes, whilst if we include the World Cup since 1994, seven of 13 showpiece deciders paid out for draw backers. With the stalemate the biggest-priced option in the 1x2 market on Sunday, I’m keen to be involved.
However, we can take the price a little further by adding Under 2.5 Goals into the mix. The goal line has been set relatively low and it’s difficult to disagree with the market when we consider what’s at stake. By opposing goals alongside the draw, we’re effectively supporting the 0-0 and 1-1 correct score at a generous 12/5.
At this stage of the competition, the fear of losing can take over and finals are rarely thrilling affairs. The 12/5 implies there’s less than a 30% chance of the game ending 0-0 or 1-1 yet both semi-finals saw this selection bank and history suggests we could be in for a long night on Sunday as two well-match nations go head-to-head.
Jake Osgathorpe
- England to lift the trophy and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 (bet365)
Italy and England are well-matched sides, but I feel that, with home advantage, a less taxing schedule from an opponents and minutes played stand point, and better strength in depth, England will lift the trophy at Wembley.
Finals are tight and cagey affairs anyway, but in this particular showpiece we have the two best defensive teams at Euro 2020 going head to head - according to expected goals (xG). The Italians have allowed an average of 0.99 xGA per game, while England's 0.61 xGA per game is the best record at the tournament and The Three Lions have allowed just one 'big chance' (0.35 xG+) at Euro 2020
With goals set to be at a premium, adding Under 3.5 Goals in 90 minutes to England lifting the trophy gives us a nice odds against bet that I like the look of.
Tom Carnduff
- Harry Maguire to have 1+ headed shots on target at 7/2 (Betfair)
I'm really surprised that a price as generous as 7/2 is available on Harry Maguire having 1+ headed shots on target in this contest - I would say the same about the 3/1 price available with most bookmakers. I genuinely expected to see this around the 2/1 mark given the tournament he has had so far.
He netted in England's win over Ukraine - powering a header into the far corner - and followed that up with two shots on target in the semi-final victory against Denmark. Had it not been for Kasper Schmeichel, he would have scored in that game too. I'll be backing Maguire anytime with a best price of 16/1 available on the Oddschecker grid with 0.78 xG on his tally after four games.
The value for a header on target is huge though and the price is too big to turn down.
Joe Townsend
- Draw/England Half-time/Full time at 28/5 (SBK)
At the prices, this contest is too close to call for a straight outright bet in 90 minutes – in my book anyway. Instead, I like the look of England to prevail in regulation after what will surely be a tight opening 45 minutes. Backing Draw/England in the half-time/full-time market is a best price of 28/5 – even the 5/1 most bookmakers are offering is good enough in my view.
Four of England’s six matches so far have been level at the break, with six of their nine normal-time goals being scored after the half-time whistle. This bet landed in those tight victories over Croatia and Germany, and but for Kasper Schmeichel’s brilliance would’ve done so against Denmark too.
Michael Beardmore
- Raheem Sterling to have 1+ right-footed shot on target at Evens (Sky Bet)
This looks ridiculously overpriced at even money. Raheem Sterling has had 12 efforts on goal across his six games – seven of those have been on target, averaging more than one per game.
He’s 8/13 to have a shot on target but that jumps to evens with his preferred foot (from which 10 of his 12 efforts have come). Additionally, he's almost a certainty, barring injury, to play the whole 90 minutes. Sterling is 13/2 for two shots on target with his right foot which isn't a bad play either.
Odds correct at 1250 BST (09/07/21)
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