Wales travel to Estonia as they bid to keep their hopes of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup alive. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
1pt Wales to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Estonia not to score at 20/23 (Mansion Bet, BetVictor)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Robert Page probably would have taken a draw away at the Czech Republic had you offered it to him before kick off on Friday evening, but after the way the game panned out his Wales team will be disappointed not to have come away with all three points.
Wales had more of the ball, created more chances and tested the opposition goalkeeper more than the Czechs, and they took the lead in the first-half thanks to Aaron Ramsey’s cool finish.
Czech Republic hit back instantly before goalkeeper Danny Ward, who is yet to make a Premier League appearance for Leicester this season, failed to control Ramsey’s backpass, letting the ball roll into the empty net behind him.
Wales showed great resilience in the face of disaster though, Leeds’ Daniel James putting the Dragons level with 20 minutes to play, and all in all, a draw keeps Page’s men in the hunt for the runners-up spot in the group.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Estonia sit fourth in Group E with four points, picking up a win over Belarus and a stalemate away in Wales in the last round of fixtures.
That was a disappointing night for Wales, and one Page’s men will not be keen to repeat.
Both sides had their chances in that fixture, but ultimately a lack of quality in front of goal was the reason for the match ending goalless.
Estonia have scored eight goals in qualifying so far, one more than Wales, but the vast majority of those goals were ‘non-crucial’ ones.
They scored twice against Belgium, but in a match the Belgians comfortable won 5-2, they scored two in a 4-2 defeat to Belarus and also got two against the Czech Republic, but again in a wide-margin defeat (6-2).
Given Estonia have failed to score in two of their last three matches, including against Wales last month, it is difficult to see them finding the back of the net in this game, and given Both Teams To score ‘NO’ is priced up at as short as 8/13 in places, the 20/23 about ESTONIA NOT TO SCORE makes plenty of appeal.
Given also the fact that Wales are fancied to win this match, and the unlikelihood of Estonia scoring, backing WALES TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS is also recommended.
Under 3.5 Goals on its own is a very short 1/4-shot, while Wales are 4/7. Those two prices as a double works out at just under even money, so anything bigger, like the 11/10 available with Mansion Bet, represents value.
Nine of Wales’ last 12 matches have seen three or fewer goals, and that figure is exactly the same for Estonia, nine of their last 12 games also seeing less than four goals.
Estonia v Wales best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Wales to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 (Mansion Bet)
- 1pt Estonia not to score at 20/23 (Mansion Bet, BetVictor)
Score prediction: Estonia 0-1 Wales (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 1140 BST (07/10/21)
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