Football betting tips: Women's Nations League
1.5pts England to win at 4/1 (Betfred)
2pts Draw at 11/4 (General)
BuildABet @ 19/1
- Lauren James to score anytime
- Alessia Russo to score anytime
- England +1 goal handicap
A lot has happened since England's World Cup final defeat by Spain 18 months ago.
The shameful post-match behaviour of then president of the Spanish Football Association, and vice president of UEFA, Luis Rubiales only began to come to any kind of conclusion last week.
Spain's High Court convicted Rubiales of sexual assault for kissing midfielder Jenni Hermoso without consent, issued him with a restraining order and acquitted him of coercion for allegedly attempting to pressure Hermoso into publicly saying the kiss was consensual.
The Court of Arbitration for Sport then dismissed his appeal against a three-year FIFA ban from all football-related activity.
It's far from over though, with both Rubiales and Hermoso intending to appeal against the High Court's verdict.
For England, things have been far less sinister, and strictly football related.
Sarina Wiegman has done a remarkable job since arriving as manager in late 2021, masterminding a home triumph at the Euros in 2022 before reaching another major tournament final in Sydney a year later.
That 1-0 defeat laid bare a growing chasm between the Lionesses and a Spanish team deservingly crowned world champions.
It should hardly have been considered a shock, as Wiegman’s team never properly clicked in Australia; they rarely have since.
England have failed to win nine of their last 20 games (W11 D4 L5) a shift from the W32 D5 L1 prior to the World Cup final.
But context is needed.
What are the best bets?
Not only is this a team in transition, with Niamh Charles, Grace Clinton and Jess Park the less familiar faces included in an XI that laboured to a 1-1 draw in Portugal on Friday, most of the Lionesses' recent Wembley fixtures have been against top-class opposition.
While far from their swashbuckling best in securing unconvincing wins over weaker sides South Africa and Switzerland, draws with Sweden (world ranked fifth) and defeat in a 4-3 thriller against Germany (ranked third) preceded a hard-fought goalless draw with Emma Hayes’ Olympic champions and world number one USA team.
Concerning as performances may have been, they have still lost only one competitive home match since 2013.
Even the sole competitive defeat over the past 12 years has its caveats, with France in a purple patch that saw them rise to second in the world rankings last summer, inspired by preparations for a home Olympics that Team GB was not part of.
Spain far from serene
There is no denying Spain's quality, and despite the heavy weight around their necks over the past 18 months they have displayed remarkable resilience to continue to progress, winning the inaugural Women's Nations League 12 months ago.
But results have been far from blemish free, with plenty of setbacks across their past 10 games.
In Euros qualifying they were shocked away to the Czech Republic, a team 29th in the FIFA world rankings. At the Olympics, they squeezed past 9/1 outsiders Colombia in the quarter-finals via a 97th-minute equaliser to come back from 2-0 down, before winning a penalty shootout. A 4-2 loss to Brazil followed, before defeat by Germany in the bronze medal match.
Only on Friday night Spain trailed 2-0 at home to Belgium (world ranked 19th) needing two stoppage-time goals to complete a 3-2 fightback.
Overpriced England
All of this makes the bookies’ odds particularly jarring.
Most firms have the visitors priced at around 4/7, with an ENGLAND WIN available at 4/1. The Lionesses were 13/10 to beat the USA in their last home match, with the draw 2/1.
It's simple common sense to back both the hosts and THE DRAW at 11/4 given the enormous prices on offer.
Team news
England full-back Lucy Bronze went off injured at half-time on Friday but is confident of being fit to start. If she doesn't, it's likely she'll be replaced by Jess Carter or Maya Le Tissier.
Forward Beth Mead is unavailable after withdrawing from the squad through injury, while midfielder Georgia Stanway, defender Alex Greenwood and winger Lauren Hemp are all missing having had knee surgery.
Predicted line-ups
England: Earps; Carter, Williamson, Bright, Charles; Walsh, Clinton, Toone; James, Russo, Mead.
Spain: Coll; Batlle, Paredes, Aleixandri, Carmona; Guijarro, Bonmati; Putellas, Del Castillo, Caldentey; Paralluelo.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (25/02/25)
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