England: What can we expect from Lee Carsley?

Has an England manager ever said that before? Certainly not in the 21st century, when the pressures of the job and perceived tactical wisdom have made conservatism the default position in press conferences and on the pitch.

Lee Carsley is threatening to do something very different. He has played down his chances of landing the job full-time but make no mistake these September games are his audition, and it’s an audition he will pass if England play the same fluid, exciting possession football that Carsley oversaw as under-21s manager.

That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s the right man for the job.

The last England coach arrived in the position via a strange sliding doors moment, Gareth Southgate reaching consecutive European Championship finals only because of the sting operation that caught out Sam Allardyce.

He was never actually meant for the role and Carsley could be the grateful recipient of a similar situation, one also deriving from a quirk of fate and a failure of sorts by his predecessor.

England’s at-the-time innocuous relegation from Nations League Group A could turn out to be one of the most consequential moments of England in the 2020s because it has gifted Carsley fixtures against Ireland and Finland; perfect opponents for his swashbuckling attacking football, for a trial that isn’t a trial at all.

England will learn nothing from deploying unconventionally progressive tactics against blatantly inferior opposition, and yet the FA are unlikely to be able to ignore the noise should England thrash their way through the group. Greece, the first opponent in October, are no better than the other two.

Carsley's U21's impressive

It will at least be entertaining. The under-21s won the European Championship in 2023 without conceding a single goal, also scoring seven times from moves of 10 passes or more, which was four more than anyone else.

They also pressed aggressively to shut down counter-attacks and pen teams in, before attacking elegantly by switching their 4-2-3-1 formation into something decidedly more fluid than we usually see at international level.

Assuming Carsley’s tactics with the under-21s will be repeated with the seniors, look out for the left winger tucking inside to become a second number ten, a left-back and right-back holding the width, a false nine involving themselves in the build-up, and two midfielders screening the defence.

“This might be the best footballing team I’ve played in,” Anthony Gordon said at a time when he was picked as Carsley’s false nine. “In terms of how we play and the combination play we play around the box, it’s really at an elite level. That’s down to Lee.”

The step up is huge, of course, and it’s unclear whether Carsley’s maverick tactics and squad selections can continue. Given that England’s best 11 comes close to picking itself, it seems unlikely we will see, say, seven central midfielders on the pitch at once (as against Slovakia at the Euros).

Carsley is attack-minded

Then again, Carsley only gets one shot at an audition – and he has already promised to be bold.

“We will be quite flexible with where we play in terms of I won’t always just play just two holding midfielders,” he said this week when discussing the selection of Angel Gomes. “There may be a balance but you might see some attacking players play a little deeper.”

Midfield is clearly the area most up in the air, especially with Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham both unavailable for selection this month, while Cole Palmer has withdrawn from the squad.

From October you would expect to see Bellingham operate as a ten who drops deeper to help Declan Rice, with Foden, starting on the left, becoming the second number ten to free up space for Luke Shaw to hold the width. But for now, there is a chance for Levi Colwill or Timo Livramento to start at left-back

Trent could thrive under Carsley

Right-back is where the change from Southgate to Carsley will be starkest. Kyle Walker was overlooked for selection – a symbolic statement after his positional errors in the Euro 2024 final – and Trent Alexander-Arnold is surely going to star in a more expansive and attacking England side.

Alexander-Arnold’s weakness defending his own box limited his chances under Southgate and how he responds to Carsley’s football might be defining. He should benefit from the interim manager wanting to defend higher up the pitch with a press that starts from the front:

“The defensive stuff is still really important,” Carsley said this week. “Making sure you’re in a position where you can dominate your opponent in and out of possession is a really big thing. It definitely wouldn’t be for me just to say: ‘Yeah crack on, all out and attack.’ It’s being in control as well, which is a big thing for us.”

Control, defensively and offensively, is the very thing that always just eluded Southgate. In three major tournaments England dropped deeper and deeper when the going got tough, ending in defeats to Croatia, Italy, and Spain.

Everyone in the country knows that. It became such a defining issue for Southgate that even casual viewers with no interest in the tactical side of the game understood this basic issue – and that’s why it was savvy of Carsley to confront the problem out loud.

Saying all the right things

“If we’re going to win a Euros and win a World Cup, we have to push it further forward. I don’t think it’s just a senior issue. It’s a bit of a confidence issue from us. It’s about, in the biggest moments and the biggest games, having the players that are capable of taking the ball and playing.”

Throughout Southgate’s eight years in charge supporters demanded a more progressive playing style for precisely that reason. For eight years Southgate ignored them, instead following the blueprint of previous champions and twice taking England very close. His conservatism was proved correct, right up until Euro 2024 and some shakier performances prior to the semi-final.

Is the solution really to open up, to embrace the kind of entertaining football that has only ever worked at club level? It would be nice to say we are about to find out, but we aren’t. Ireland and Finland will not test the theory.

The international break will likely end with dozens of told-you-so opinion pieces declaring that Southgate should have played like this; that Carsley is the right man for the job full-time.

Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t, but a few games in the second tier of the Nations League will not provide us with an answer.

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