Football betting tips: World Cup qualifying
2pts England to score 4+ goals at 10/11 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 7/4 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
1pt Declan Rice 1+ assists at 15/4 (Betway)
0.5pt Ezri Konsa to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet
0.5pt Levi Colwill to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Jarell Quansah to score anytime at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 5/1
- Bellingham to score
- Rice to score or assist
- England to score 4+ goals
It was a case of job done on Friday night as Thomas Tuchel began his reign as England manager with a straightforward win over Albania.
For all the talk of a high-octane, Premier League style in the build-up, it was perhaps the new Three Lions boss, more than England supporters, who needed to experience the reality of managing a top nation in modern day international football.
The performance was workmanlike. There were positives - Myles Lewis-Skelly's record-breaking debut - and negatives - underwhelming showings from Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford - but ultimately the clue is in the name when it comes to World Cup qualifying, and England have developed a very professional habit of securing their place at major tournaments with a minimum of fuss.
And Albania are no pushovers; as Italy, Spain and Croatia found at Euro 2024.
Monday's opponents will offer nowhere near the same level of obdurate resistance.
What are the best bets?
England were 1/9 to win on Friday, they are 1/50 to beat Latvia, a team relegated from Nations League C after finishing bottom of a division containing North Macedonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands.
When travelling to top-tier nations in their past two qualifying campaigns they were thrashed 5-0 by Croatia, 4-0 in Turkey, 7-1 by Germany and, mercifully, escaped the Netherlands with a 2-0 defeat.
In 14 home qualifiers since the 2018 World Cup, ENGLAND have scored 53 times at an average of 3.8 per game, scoring 4+ GOALS in eight (57%) of those matches.
The exceptions, other than Malta (2), have been against strong opponents with Italy (3), Ukraine (2), Poland (2) and Hungary (1) the teams to stop Gareth Southgate's men from scoring at least four times before Albania (2) did so in Tuchel's first game.
With over 3.5 total goals priced at 4/6, the 10/11 about England covering that line themselves is very much worth getting behind, especially given Tuchel's desire for a braver attacking display than he witnessed on Friday.
"Both of our wingers were not as impactful as normally they can be."
— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) March 21, 2025
Thomas Tuchel on Phil Foden and Marcus Rashford's performance against Albania tonight 📊 pic.twitter.com/10CammNhpr
Two to build around
In a shock to no one JUDE BELLINGHAM was outstanding against Albania, thriving in the free role afforded to him, always looking most likely to find a way through an immovable low block.
It proved to be the case too, with his wonderful pass sending Lewis-Skelly through to score and break the deadlock.
The Real Madrid midfielder came within a whisker of finding the net himself shortly before half-time and at 7/4 TO SCORE ANYTIME he should be backed to do so against significantly weaker opposition.
It's unclear how many changes Tuchel will make for Monday night but given how keen the England boss has been to mention how few opportunities there will be to build combinations and rhythm before the World Cup, Bellingham and DECLAN RICE feel certain to start.
Rice was another who stood out, creating Harry Kane's goal and delivering several dangerous set-pieces. In a match where goals are expected, his 15/4 price for 1+ ASSISTS looks a cracking bet.
His late development as a creator and set-piece taker bears out in the numbers, with him providing no assists in his first 55 England appearances, but three in his last eight.
Set-piece resurgence?
In going down the list of excellent England performers, EZRI KONSA did his chances of becoming a first choice centre-back no harm whatsoever.
Ezri Konsa! 💪@England | @AVFCOfficial pic.twitter.com/SVmShWjD5C
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) March 21, 2025
Tuchel seemed to hint at a clear pecking order of John Stones, Konsa, LEVI COLWILL and then Euro 2024 star Marc Guehi in his post-match news conference, although it's hard to know exactly how much is being said for motivational impact.
It really is finger in the air stuff trying to predict who will start at centre-back against Latvia, but given the scoreline we're forecasting and the threat England pose at set-pieces, taking small stakes to all three who are priced in double figures is advised. KONSA, COLWILL and JARELL QUANSAH are all available at almost double the quotes of their team-mates.
- CLICK HERE to back Konsa to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Colwill to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Quansah to score anytime with Sky Bet
Dan Burn had three attempts on Friday night, hitting the crossbar with his best one.
Team news
Anthony Gordon had looked likely to start but injured himself as a substitute on Friday and was forced to pull out of the squad on Sunday.
That could mean a second chance for Marcus Rashford, though it is more likely Aston Villa team-mate Morgan Rogers is rewarded for his superb club form.
Jarrod Bowen will hope to replace Phil Foden, while defenders Marc Guehi, Reece James, Levi Colwill and Jarell Quansah all have a chance of involvement.
Tino Livramento and Aaron Ramsdale were both released from the squad over the weekend.
Predicted line-ups
England: Pickford; James, Guehi, Quansah, Colwill; Rice, Henderson; Bowen, Bellingham, Rogers; Kane.
Latvia: Zviedris; Jurkovskis, Balodis, Cernomordijs; Savalnieks, Melniks, Savaljevs, Ciganiks; Zelenkovs, Ikaunieks; Gutkovskis.
Match facts
- This will be England and Latvia’s first ever meeting. The Three Lions haven’t lost their first meeting against any of the last 56 nations they’ve faced for the first time (W42 D14) since losing 2-1 to Mexico in May 1959.
- Latvia have lost their last 13 international matches against sides who started that match within the top-10 of the FIFA Rankings by an aggregate score of 38-1. Their sole win against such opposition came against Türkiye – ranked 8th – in November 2003 in a UEFA European Championship qualifier.
- England have won their last four competitive matches, they last won five in a row in June 2021.
- England are unbeaten (W34 D4) in their last 38 qualifying matches for major tournaments at home (EURO/World Cup), twice as long as their next best run without defeat (two 19 game runs in April 1983 and October 1996).
- Latvia won their most recent competitive away match (1-0 v Andorra) after going winless in eight previously (D2 L6), however, they haven’t won back-to-back away games in major tournament (EURO/World Cup) qualifiers since October 2009 (v Luxembourg and Israel).
- England have won each of their last 35 competitive matches at Wembley in which they’ve led at half-time, since a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in 1993, with John Barnes and David Platt both scoring in the opening half-hour for the Three Lions.
- Jude Bellingham has played 41 times for England, the most caps ever won for the Three Lions while aged 21 or younger. He’s been directly involved in 11 goals (5 goals, 6 assists) in his last 16 games and could either score or assist in three consecutive matches for the first time.
- Thomas Tuchel could be the first permanent England manager to win his first two competitive games in charge since Fabio Capello in September 2008 (won his first 8), while the last England manager to lose either of his first two competitive matches was Alf Ramsey in 1963 (lost both).
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (22/3/25)
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