- Follow @TomCarnduff
Football betting tips: Euro 2024 qualifying
2pts Harry Kane to score anytime at 13/10 (General)
A game that, on the surface, looks like it could have a significant impact on England's chances of progression. The fact is that Gareth Southgate's side are basically there when it comes to a spot at next summer's tournament.
Even with a defeat here, the Three Lions' two remaining fixtures after are against North Macedonia and Malta. Of course, the sooner they secure their place the better, and they are more than equipped to do that on Tuesday night.
England are a dominant nation in qualifying - the issues consistently surround results at a major tournament. Victory in Italy in their first game pretty much put them in a commanding position so early on into the campaign.
An away draw with Ukraine stopped the perfect record, but this game is the only potential hiccup in their quest to finish with a maximum remaining 22 points.
What are the best bets?
It may be an obvious choice in this game, but I'm always drawn to taking HARRY KANE TO SCORE ANYTIME whenever odds-against prices are available.
I could sit and waste your time by telling you stuff you already know, but Kane is the elite striker in this England set-up. He's scored five in five qualification appearances so far.
One of those was in the win in Italy. Whether it be from open play or through a penalty, we know that Kane will see plenty of opportunities to strike. After all, he comes into this boasting nine goals in ten contests across all competitions for Bayern so far.
The price on this is big enough to draw me in, with 13/10 the best odds and 5/4 available on multiple bookmakers.
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Jude Bellingham to score or assist
- Jude Bellingham 3+ tackles
- Giovanni Di Lorenzo 1+ fouls
- Harry Maguire 1+ fouls
Click here to back with Sky Bet
Jude Bellingham is an international star following his switch to Real Madrid in the summer, contributing ten goals and three assists across ten games in all club competitions.
He carried that form into contests for his country, contributing a goal and an assist in the friendly win over Scotland last month. The midfielder is also playing his part defensively with 2.7 average tackles per qualification game.
Harry Maguire will start here - Southgate knows and trusts him - and taking him plus Italy right-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo to contribute a foul each adds some good value to a multiple.
Score prediction: England 2-0 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Southgate opted for a changed XI in the friendly win over Australia on Friday but they will be back to full strength here.
Selections issues at left-back - both Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell are out injured - will see either Kieran Trippier or Levi Colwill battling for that spot. There is also a place on the wing available given Bukayo Saka's absence.
For the visitors, Ciro Immobile and Federico Chiesa are two names of note who are unavailable through injury. Sandro Tonali and Nicolò Zaniolo also left the camp last week due to an investigation.
Predicted line-ups
England: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Trippier; Rice, Phillips, Bellingham; Grealish, Kane, Foden.
Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Scalvini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Locatelli, Frattesi, Barella; Berardi, Raspadori, Kean.
Match facts
- Following their 2-1 win in March, England are looking for consecutive wins over Italy for only the second time, also doing so with wins in 1948 and 1949.
- England have won their last 12 home European Championship qualifiers by an aggregate score of 47-4. A player has scored a hat-trick in four of their last six on home soil – Raheem Sterling vs Czechia (March 2019), Harry Kane vs Bulgaria (September 2019) and Montenegro (November 2019) and Bukayo Saka vs North Macedonia (June 2023).
- Italy haven’t lost any of their last 22 away European Championship qualifiers (W17 D5) since a 3-1 defeat to France in September 2006. If they avoid defeat here, they would set a new record for unbeaten away Euros qualifiers – Romania also had a 22-game run between 1991 and 2007.
- England have suffered just one defeat in their last 62 major tournament qualifiers (World Cup/Euros), a 2-1 reverse away at Czechia in October 2019 (W49 D12). At home, the Three Lions are unbeaten in their last 35 such games (W31 D4) since losing to 3-2 to Croatia in November 2007 under Steve McClaren.
- Harry Kane has been directly involved in at least one goal in 17 of his 18 appearances in European Championship qualifying for England (20 goals, 8 assists), including the last 14 in a row. The only game he didn’t score or assist in was against Estonia in October 2015.
- Italy manager Luciano Spalletti’s previous game at Wembley came while in charge of Inter Milan, losing 1-0 in November 2018 against Spurs in a UEFA Champions League match. The last four Italy managers to face England for the first time have all drawn, with Giovanni Trappatoni the last manager to beat the Three Lions in their first game against them (1-0 in November 2000).
Odds correct at 1215 BST (16/10/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
