Football betting tips: Nations League
3pts Harry Kane to score anytime at 4/5 (General)
1.5pts England -2 handicap at 11/8 (General)
0.5pt Trent Alexander-Arnold to provide 2+ assists at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
BuildABet @ 16/1
- Harry Kane to score anytime
- England -2 handicap
- Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assists
- Alexander-Arnold 2+ tackles
- Anthony Gordon 1+ assists
In their infinite wisdom, UEFA thankfully launched the Nations League in 2018 to fill a gap in what was fast becoming a very bare football calendar.
Much of the justification at its inception was to try and provide more competitive, and fewer heavily one-sided, fixtures outside of major tournaments by creating a divisional system that would allow teams of similar ability to play one another.
It's actually not a terrible idea, really.
But what if one of the strongest teams in the world is relegated from the top flight? It doesn't really work then does it.
Were there a mercy rule in football then the Republic of Ireland ought to have been allowed to throw the towel on the pitch just after half-time in Dublin on Saturday. Luckily for them, England began to back off a little and coast to as straightforward a win as they have probably ever had away from home, with the stats not at all pretty for the Irish.
Lee Carsley now takes charge of his first game at Wembley, and the opponents get even weaker.
It's hard to disagree with Alex Keble's assessment that we can learn little about England's interim boss from these fixtures because the opposition is so bad.
What are the best bets?
Weak as Ireland were, there were certainly positive signs at the Aviva Stadium, with England brave in possession and determined to play attacking football.
Barring an enormous shock, Finland will be soundly beaten on Tuesday evening.
They head into this contest having lost 3-0 to Greece on Saturday, and England's recent record in home matches outside of tournament football is formidable, as is HARRY KANE's.
It's quite frankly astonishing that several firms are willing to offer 4/5 for the Bayern striker TO SCORE ANYTIME when he is generally priced at 1/2.
He looked a real threat against Ireland (1.06 xG) and it's unlikely he will miss the chances he did in successive matches.
The England captain will win his 100th cap on Tuesday too, so in my view should be left on the pitch until he's found the net. The 66 goals he's scored in 99 matches up to this point surely grants him that right.
Straightforward home win
Putting the previous Nations League campaign to one side, a clear anomaly given its scheduling in the weeks prior to the 2022 mid-season World Cup, seven of England's past 10 competitive home matches have seen them win by at least two goals.
This match is priced very similarly in the 1X2 to their home Euros qualifier with North Macedonia last year, a game the Three Lions won 7-0.
Backing ENGLAND -2 HANDICAP at a generous 11/8 is therefore advised.
Stick with Trent
Call me boring, but having just missed out on Saturday I shall be doubling down on TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD by this time backing him TO PROVIDE 2+ ASSISTS at 11/1.
As expected, he was central to everything England did in an attacking sense, and took the majority of set-pieces, with only his team-mates to blame for his lack of assists.
Unfortunately the 4/1 that was available for one in Dublin is long gone, with most bookies now into around 7/4, but given this could turn into a landslide, chancing 2+ at a bigger price, to smaller stakes, is worthwhile.
Team news
Lee Carsley has no new injury concerns but Rico Lewis and John Stones may come in for Levi Colwill and Harry Maguire in England's defence.
Morgan Gibbs-White and Angel Gomes will hope to start after making their debuts from the bench in Dublin, while Noni Madueke and Tino Livramento still await their first caps.
Finland duo Kaan Kairinen and Rasmus Schuller are both expected to miss out after suffering injuries before and during their defeat by Greece respectively.
Urho Nissila should start if Schuller does not recover in time.
Predicted line-ups
England: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Stones, Guehi, Lewis; Rice, Mainoo; Saka, Grealish, Gordon; Kane.
Finland: Hradecky; Stahl, Hoskonen, Ivanov, Uronen; Peltola, Nissila; Lod, Kamara, Antman; Pohjanpalo.
Match facts
- England are unbeaten in all 11 of their previous meetings with Finland (W9 D2), only facing Bulgaria more often without ever suffering defeat (P12 W8 D4).
- England will host Finland for the first time since a March 2001 World Cup qualifier, winning 2-1 in Sven-Goran Eriksson’s first competitive game in charge thanks to goals from Michael Owen and David Beckham.
- England lost their final home game under Gareth Southgate, 0-1 in a friendly against Iceland – the Three Lions haven’t lost back-to-back matches on home soil since November 2013 under Roy Hodgson (to Chile and Germany).
- Finland lost 0-3 against Greece in their previous outing, marking the second consecutive competitive match that they’ve lost by 3+ goals (1-4 v Wales previously). This is the first time they’ve lost back-to-back competitive games by at least three goals since October-November 1989 (1-6 v Germany, 0-3 v Netherlands).
- Lee Carsley’s first game in charge of England was a 2-0 victory over Republic of Ireland, while the last manager to win his first two competitive games was Fabio Capello in 2008. Indeed, the only managers to win their first two competitive fixtures without conceding a goal are Steve McClaren (2006), Ron Greenwood (1977) and Joe Mercer (1974).
- Harry Kane could make his 100th appearance for England, which would see him become just the 10th player to reach a century of games for the men’s team, and first since Wayne Rooney in November 2014. Only two players have scored in their 100th game for the Three Lions, with Rooney doing so versus Slovenia (2014) and Bobby Charlton netting versus Northern Ireland in April 1970.
- Teemu Pukki has been directly involved in 12 goals in 18 appearances in the UEFA Nations League (eight goals and four assists), at least three times as many as any other player for Finland in the competition (Robin Lod, 4).
- Bukayo Saka completed six dribbles against Republic of Ireland last time out; his most in a single game for England to date (41st appearance). Indeed, Saka’s six completed dribbles accounted for half of his team’s total (6/12), as well as being more than Republic of Ireland’s players combined (5).
Odds correct at 1130 BST (09/09/24)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
