England bid to end their three-game winless run when they host Hungary at Molineux in the Nations League on Tuesday night. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Nations League
1.5pt Roland Sallai 1+ shot on target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Draw HT/England FT at 3/1 (General)
For a competition that has, during its admittedly short existence, been a pretty positive one for England, there’s no argument their early efforts in this year’s Nations League renewal have been underwhelming.
If there is a glimmer of light to cling to, they have arguably improved over the three games – but that’s a pretty low bar given how abysmal they were in Budapest the week before last.
Regardless, the ugly stat remains that Gareth Southgate’s side have failed to score in open play in those three games, their sole goal coming from Harry Kane’s penalty against Germany in Munich.
Two draws and a defeat have left them bottom of League A Group 3, and if they are to avoid the ignominy of relegation to the second tier, Tuesday’s night return fixture against the Hungarians is almost must-win territory.
After two away games plus a home match behind closed doors, it will be interesting to see if a sell-out crowd at Molineux lifts the performance – Southgate intimated its importance after the drab draw with Italy and I’m inclined to agree with him.
He’s likely to restore the big guns to the starting XI in Wolverhampton but given the relative riches at his disposal, it would still take a brave man to predict England’s line-up.
Hungary, however, have kept changes to a minimum in picking up four points from their three games and are unlikely to make many alterations for a marquee match against the Three Lions.
One player who has been particularly active is Roland Sallai, the Freiburg winger recording nine shots, including an impressive six on target, across those three matches.
It’s not exclusively a recent trend either – Sallai has registered 48 shots on target in 90 appearances for his German club and 22 shots on target in 21 competitive internationals for Hungary that include games against plenty of big guns.
Those numbers make the 11/8 that Sky Bet offer on SALLAI TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET look hugely generous.
He’s also 8/1 to net anytime or 22/1 if you fancy him to replicate his feat of opening the scoring away to England in last October’s 1-1 World Cup qualifying draw at Wembley.
But given he only averages a goal every 6.75 games for club and country despite his shooting frequency, I’m happy to take the surprisingly odds-against punt on him just to test the keeper.
As mentioned, I expect England to win here – they generally do at home to non-elite nations – but they are far too short for the outright win at 1/4 across the board. Hungary are an improving bunch and it will not be easy.
I was tempted by 13/5 on England to win by one goal but have just been swayed by DRAW HT/ENGLAND FT at a slightly larger 3/1.
Ignoring matches against no-hopers, England have been level at the break in 13 of their 17 games in the past 12 months – they have gone on to win seven.
England v Hungary score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pt Roland Sallai 1+ shot on target at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Draw HT/England FT at 3/1 (General)
Score prediction: England 1-0 Hungary (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct 1400 BST (13/6/22)
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