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England v France tips: World Cup 2022 best bets, predictions and preview
England's toughest test of the World Cup sees them come up against current holders France. Tom Carnduff picks out two best bets.
Football betting tips: England v France
1.5pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 15/8 (General)
1pt Adrien Rabiot to be shown a card at 11/2 (bet365)
England's face their first major test of this World Cup - current holders France stand in their way of a spot in the semi-final.
Not only that, but the Three Lions find themselves in a rare position of being priced as the outsiders to win a game. Patriotic betting perhaps, but this is a team who, on paper at least, could finally live up to expectations.
France are favourites for a reason though - and apart from the defeat to Tunisia where they made a number of chances - have enjoyed a great tournament so far.
England's recent record against other top nations hasn't been the best, and while they deserve huge credit for their ability to reach the latter stages of competitions, questions remain about that record.
Runs at the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 had favourable fixtures throughout, with Colombia and Sweden their knockout opponents at the last edition before the semi-final defeat to Croatia.
They did beat Germany in the round of 16 at last summer's European Championship, but that was a side waiting for the Hansi Flick era to begin. It was always on the cards that they would exit early into the knockout stage.
On the flip side, maybe the Three Lions are better for these experiences, and this game is the one where all that learning combines in a good performance with victory secured.
It's hard to tell which it will be, but there is reluctance to get into the outright market because of the uninspiring record against the others at the top - this England side were relegated from Nations League A recently.
Instead, focusing on certain players opens up some value, and we're taking the generous looking 15/8 on KYLIAN MBAPPE TO SCORE ANYTIME.
A lot of the pre-game talk has been about Mbappe, with the focus put onto Kyle Walker as the man with the pace to stop him. Most eyes are on that battle, but pure skill wise should see the French star come out on top.
He's in prime position to scoop the Golden Boot award with five on his tally so far. He played pretty poorly across the whole game in their round of 16 win over Poland and yet still found the net twice in the latter stages.
Mbappe's World Cup so far has seen a total of 21 shots - 10 of which on target - and an xG tally of 3.28 for his five. Given the fact he came on as a second-half sub in their final group contest, he's averaging 0.90 xG/95 at the tournament.
It's a generous price on the favourites' biggest threat, and he should get opportunities to strike throughout the game.
Sticking with France, and I was intrigued by the 11/2 best price available on ADRIEN RABIOT TO BE SHOWN A CARD. He should be partnering Aurelien Tchouameni in midfield once again.
While the Mbappe/Walker chat has dominated the airwaves, the battle in the centre of the park is likely to be the most decisive element of the game.
Jordan Henderson will be alongside Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham if Gareth Southgate opts to stick with the trio we have seen in recent games, and that could be problematic for Rabiot.
It's Bellingham that is the biggest issue, with the Dortmund man an eye-catching part of this England side. His ability to drive forward with possession may tempt Rabiot into committing fouls to stop attacks before they start.
It could be repetitive and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see this land in the first-half. Tchouameni has demonstrated he can excel in the tackles count this tournament - the first two group games show this - but Rabiot may see issues.
This isn't necessarily one reckless challenge but more accumulating little fouls that the referee will eventually want to stop. Given how competitive this fixture should be, the 11/2 looks too generous.
You can make cases for the game going either way, with both squads fairly similar in their make-up and talent while also possessing significant strengths and weaknesses.
France's 2018 success can help them in the latter stages of this competition, and they'll be eager to avoid the premature exit that we saw at Euro 2020 (a defeat on penalties in the round of 16).
An appearance in the final will be the minimum expectations for Les Bleus given the side of the bracket that they are on - regardless of how hard it is to win back-to-back World Cup's.
Rather than tie ourselves to a result, the best bets can be found in backing MBAPPE and RABIOT to be involved.
England v France best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 15/8 (General)
- 1pt Adrien Rabiot to be shown a card at 11/2 (bet365)
Score prediction: England 1-2 France (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (08/12/22)
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