England starting XI odds: Who should Gareth Southgate pick?
Before scribbling down a dream England XI it’s healthy to keep in mind the gigantic differences between club and international football.
The former is now so culturally dominant the latter has come to be seen as its offshoot, spawning a common theory: the tactical trends of club football are a readymade solution that can and should be plonked onto the international scene – if only the England manager wasn’t such a backwards, cowardly leader.
Conservative set-up key to success
There are criticisms of Gareth Southgate’s approach that are credible – in-game adjustments; an inability to regain control when the tide starts to turn – but to question his broad tactical approach, his progressivism, or his willingness to evolve are not among them.
World Cups and European Championships are won with a more simplistic and conservative tactical setup – roughly akin to early 2000s football - than anything we see in the club game, for two reasons: there just isn’t time to implement complex approaches in summer tournaments; and the chaos of knockout football favours caution.
This has been true for decades and yet there are still many who believe England would be better off mimicking Klopp-esque pressing or tossing Guardiola’s inverted full-backs into the mix, as if these are simple bolt-on ideas and not part of a very long and complicated system of day-to-day management.
Southgate still striding forward
And there are still too many who complain at Southgate for his tactical caution, seeing him as a regressive manager unwilling to move with the times and willfully ignore evidence to the contrary. The change from the 3-4-3 in the 2018 World Cup to the 4-3-3 of Euro 2021 to the more expansive 4-2-3-1 of the last 12 months should be enough to convince.
If it isn’t, then axing Jordan Henderson (admittedly too late) and Marcus Rashford this month ought to trigger memories of when he has ruthlessly done the same to Raheem Sterling, Wayne Rooney, and many others to create the young squad he has today. Chastising Southgate for loyalty or having favourites dismisses the importance of creating a regular and dependable line-up to build relationships – vital when international windows are so brief.
Nevertheless the build-up to Germany will be defined by suggestions that Southgate ought to have left by now, and in fairness prior to the most recent friendlies there was a convincing case. The Henderson issue, and Southgate’s consequent refusal to moralise, was a mark against him and what looked like a hesitant squad hinted at the familiar death spiral of England managers.
But the initial squad for Euro 2024 breathes new life into the Southgate era. Henderson’s departure was essential. The inclusion of Jarell Quansah, Curtis Jones, the uncapped Jarrad Branthwaite, Adam Wharton, and Eberechi Eze is in keeping with positive turnover that has happened throughout the Southgate era and only briefly interrupted post World Cup 2022.
Should Trent Alexander-Arnold start?
It means we can restore our faith in Southgate’s approach, can accurately predict what he will consider to be England’s best XI, and, bearing in mind the idiosyncrasies of international football, can largely agree with what his choices will be.
Jordan Pickford is the number one through merit and, as it happens, by default. International teams don’t necessarily need an active sweeper keeper or a third centre-back to help in the first build-up phase – and even if they did, Aaron Ramsdale’s year on the bench for Arsenal means England don’t have one.
The calls for Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back are understandable and he may play a role either when England need to assert themselves against weaker opponents or as a central midfield, although Southgate appears to have ruled that out after injuries prevented the experiment getting the minutes it needs.
But Kyle Walker will be selected at right-back for his treasured recovery pace against the fast counter-attacks of the bigger nations, and because of his club partnership with John Stones – a no-brainer at right centre-back.
Defenders To start England's first Euro 2024 game (via Sky Bet)
- Kyle Walker - 1/10
- John Stones - 1/8
- Kieran Trippier - 4/7
- Marc Guehi - evs
- Harry Maguire - 6/5
- Joe Gomez - 5/4
Odds correct at 1415 (03/06/24)
Alongside Stones will be Harry Maguire, a position he has kept because there just hasn’t been an outstanding alternative and because his experience and aerial prowess compliment Stones. Maguire is a very good centre-back and not just a meme, lest we forget. He and Stones work well together.
The only wrinkle here is the emergence of left-footed Branthwaite, a player inexplicably not given game-time in the March friendlies and therefore unlikely to start this summer. This is a point against Southgate, but at this juncture it’s hard to argue with Maguire as the starter.
England are star-studded
The only two remaining issues are at left-back and central midfield, because the rest of the team picks itself. Most nations don’t have the privilege of five world-class footballers in five different positions and Southgate won’t waste that opportunity, meaning Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham (number ten), Phil Foden (left wing), Harry Kane, and Bukayo Saka play together.
There are quibbles here regarding whether Foden should play in the middle and Bellingham sit deeper, but the roundest pegs for the round holes are Bellingham as a number ten – where he played in 34 of his 41 Real Madrid games this season – and Foden drifting across from the left, a position he has played many times.
Of course, Bellingham could return to the position he played at Borussia Dortmund to free up Foden as a ten, where he has flourished this season, with a more traditional winger like Anthony Gordon could come in on the left. That is a good in-game switch for England to try and certainly Bellingham’s malleability gives Southgate new options when things go wrong, but it won’t be how he starts.
For the balance of the team, and to ensure there is a sensible double pivot as part of the conservative tactics demanded at international tournaments, Bellingham is not the right fit here. Indeed, any arguments breaking out over this merely reflect the English mentality; the muscle memory that says we must worry and complain, when really there has never been a better or more natural front five in the nation’s history.
Left-back a serious concern
That leaves two problem positions for England, although the FA Cup final should have settled one of them. Kobbie Mainoo has been fast-tracked into the England setup and was excellent on his full debut against Belgium in March. If Southgate was unsure after that, Mainoo’s magnificent display in the FA Cup final surely convinced him there is no danger in trusting the teenager.
Midfielders To start England's first Euro 2024 game (via Sky Bet)
- Declan Rice - 1/16
- Jude Bellingham - 1/16
- Conor Gallagher - 8/13
- Trent Alexander-Arnold - 8/11
- Kobbie Mainoo - 5/4
Odds correct at 1415 (03/06/24)
He is the press-resistant, weaving, box-to-box shuttling, intelligent midfielder England have been craving for years, and if he can do it against Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne at Wembley he is ready for Germany.
That leaves left-back, where Luke Shaw’s injury has severely limited Southgate’s options. Here, as with hesitating on Branthwaite, the manager’s judgement can be questioned; not picking Levi Colwill is a strange omission that really only leaves Kieran Tripper to complete an all-right-footed back four.
It is England’s biggest weakness. Maybe their only real weakness. But surely by now Southgate – more progressive, ruthless, and savvy than so many would care to accept - has earned our trust.
England’s best XI: Pickford; Walker, Stones, Maguire, Trippier; Mainoo, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane
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