With Gareth Southgate beginning to experiment with the options in his squad ahead of November's World Cup, Liam Kelly picks out three value selections in the England starting XI market for the opening game of Qatar 2022.
- Article published prior to England's friendly with Switzerland
Who should be England's first choice goalkeeper?
Barring injury, Gareth Southgate looks sure to select Jordan Pickford, Aaron Ramsdale and Nick Pope for his 23-man squad. From that trio, the starting position for the upcoming World Cup should be a straight fight between the first two.
With Pickford and Ramsdale priced up at 4/7 and 15/8 respectively on Betfair's Sportsbook, the value lies with the latter to be England's first choice goalkeeper in their opening group game.
Pickford's place was under question heading into Euro 2020, seemingly holding on to his position thanks to the distribution skills sought by Southgate. Ramsdale and Sam Johnstone — late additions to the squad — were never in that battle.
At the moment, however, Ramsdale should be considered as England's best option.
Arsenal's number one is posting shot stopping numbers that compare favourably to Pickford this season, preventing 6.15 goals based on post-shot expected goals data (Pickford - 2.47), as well as proving his distribution is at least on par with the Everton goalkeeper.
There is perhaps a question on the aerial dominance, or lack thereof, that Ramsdale offers, but Pickford struggles in a similar area, often more erratic than his chief rival for the job.
Southgate's tendency to be loyal to those that have served him well in previous tournaments rather than in-form players is a worry, as is the untimely injury Ramsdale suffered entering the international break, but it might pay to pick against Pickford here.
Who will start at right-back for England?
Unfortunately, England look set to start with Harry Maguire and John Stones at centre-back, so any price for another player in that position appears to be a little short. Southgate could employ a three-at-the-back system, though, which would bring the prospect of wing-backs into play.
The right side is stacked with talent. Trent Alexander-Arnold is an avoidable favourite to start in that position despite his incredible season, his traits not really translatable in Southgate's approach. Reece James is a creative force, too, and his defensive attributes are far more suited to England's game.
England's left side is interesting from a value perspective. Luke Shaw is likely to start in a back four but it might be worth siding with the 9/4 available on Bukayo Saka to start in the first game of the tournament.
Southgate clearly trusts Saka, who played vital minutes in Euro 2020. The star young Gunner could easily be deployed as a left wing-back as a result.
Saka’s versatility is what makes appeal in this instance, though.
He’s more than capable of starting on either flank in whatever attacking structure England employ, currently shining on Arsenal’s right side with nine goals from 5.73 expected goals (xG) and five assists from 5.73 expected assists (xA).
The 20-year-old will miss the friendlies in this break after testing positive for Covid-19, but this looks like an experimental set of fixtures for Southgate. If Saka's current form continues, it will be difficult to leave him out of the team.
Will Phil Foden start for England?
Staying with the theme of versatility, Phil Foden is an excellent bet to start England’s World Cup opener at a price of 8/11.
Foden can play on either wing and be used as an '8' or a '10' in what could be a more attacking midfield based on strength of opposition. He might even be the answer at centre forward if Harry Kane was unavailable, a role he fills well at Manchester City when required.
After putting his early season struggles behind him, Foden is now playing an integral role in City's title push, repaying the faith of Pep Guardiola with some outstanding performances recently.
There really isn't much else to say about the 21-year-old. His quality is plainly obvious and he should be one of the first names on Southgate's teamsheet in November.
Odds correct at 15:15 GMT (25/03/21)
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