Nick Hext is backing Gillingham and Stevenage as his top two selections to win in the Sky Bet EFL this weekend.
Recommended bet: EFL
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Gillingham to beat MK Dons, League One
A three-match losing run has seen Gillingham slip to the edge of the Sky Bet League One relegation places. The Gills are three point ahead of fourth-bottom Port Vale, having played two games more, and they have to start their fightback at MK Dons on Saturday. Some of boss Adrian Pennock's injury problems have eased for this match and I don't think Gillingham should be as big as 6/1 to get the win. The Gills have beaten Southend, Bury and Scunthorpe in their last seven matches so things aren't quite as bad as their previous three outings would suggest. They also don't have anything to be scared of from an MK Dons side with only a win against bottom-of-the-table Coventry in their last six outings. The Dons can't be trusted as odds-on favourites so show a little bit of support for the Gills at a big price.
Stevenage to beat Barnet, League Two
Backing Stevenage to win on their own patch to Barnet is a simple choice. The Boro have triumphed in their last seven home games in a row, winning four of their previous five matches at the Lamex Stadium by three goals. Barnet have only won one of their last six contests on their travels and have claimed just one victory in their previous eight outings overall. Fourth-placed Stevenage need the three points to continue their automatic promotion aspirations and have to be backed to get the victory at odds-against.
Other bets worth considering:
Second half to contain the most goals in Derby v QPR, Championship
The Sky Bet Championship returns on Friday night as Derby host QPR at Pride Park, live on Sky Sports 1 at 1945 BST. Both of these sides are destined to be playing in the second tier of English football again next season as they sit in mid-table. The talking point is Gary Rowett's first home games as Derby boss and I don't expect an action-packed opening to proceedings. The second half has contained more goals than the first period in all of Derby's last five games and Rowett can keep it tight against in-form QPR. Ian Holloway's men won 5-1 at Rotherham last time out but this is a much tougher test and I like the odds-against for most goals to be scored after the break.
No goalscorer in Reading v Leeds, Championship
The second live Sky Bet Championship match on Sky Sports 1 this weekend is Reading's clash against Leeds at 1730 BST on Saturday. Fourth-placed Leeds are one position and two points better off than Reading in the play-offs so there's plenty for both clubs to prove at the Madejski Stadium. I expect a tight game with not too much action. Reading have drawn 0-0 with Barnsley and Newcastle in two of their last four home games and I can see this being another goalless encounter. Leeds expect star striker Chris Wood to feature after an injury problem on international duty with New Zealand but I still reckon the 83/10 for no goalscorer is worth a small stake.
Port Vale to beat AFC Wimbledon, League One
We are at the stage of the season where what clubs have left to play for has to be taken into account. Port Vale can move out of the relegation places by claiming victory on Saturday but opponents AFC Wimbledon are settled in mid-table after a fantastic debut season in Sky Bet League One. I reckon Vale are worth a second glance at over 2/1 to get the three points with plenty of work still to do in their survival bid. Michael Brown's side have won two of their last five games after a three-month wait for their first victory of 2017 and they can increase the pressure on the sides above them.
Wycombe to beat Leyton Orient, League Two
Omer Riza has become Leyton Orient's fifth manager of the season this week after the resignation of Danny Webb. The O's have endured a horrible campaign as they slip towards relegation into the Vanarama National League and it looks too late for Riza to mount any bid to stay up. Orient have lost their last four matches in a row, all by three or more goals, and it's hard to see anything other than a Wycombe win at the Matchroom Stadium on Saturday. The Chairboys are just short of even money to get the victory and that has to be taken as they go for a third away success in a row.
Over 3.5 goals in Coventry v Oxford, Checkatrade Trophy final
Coventry and Oxford meet on Sunday afternoon in an all-Sky Bet League One final of the Checkatrade Trophy, kick-off is at 1430 BST live on Sky Sports 3. Oxford are the big favourites to claim the silverware and it's hard to disagree with the assessment of the bookies. Coventry sit 27 points behind eighth-placed Oxford at the bottom of the table and their Checkatrade Trophy run has provided the only cheer for fans this season. Back-to-back home wins have boosted the Sky Blues' morale ahead of this match but Oxford are also feeling good following a 5-1 victory over Bury in midweek. I expect there to be goals so bigger than 2/1 for over 3.5 total goals is the way to go as this has been a winner in two of Oxford's last three outings.
Posted at 1930 BST on 30/03/17.
