- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +34.35pts in profit for the 23/24 football season
Football betting tips: League One
2pts Derby to win to nil at evens (General)
Home exits in all three cup competitions have left Derby County with one clear priority to focus on – earning a return to the Sky Bet Championship.
The Rams are yet to truly justify their position as pre-season Sky Bet League One title favourites but sit comfortably inside the top six and with two games in hand on leaders Portsmouth.
Visitors Burton, meanwhile, are striving to steer clear of a relegation battle at the other end of the division, having entered the weekend with a five-point cushion above the bottom four.
The Brewers sacked Dino Maamria last month after five defeats in a winless six-game league run dragged them towards danger but have picked up eight points from a possible 18 since and this week unveiled Martin Paterson as their new boss.
What are the best bets?
I'd be amazed if DERBY do not win this game and that is reflected by 3/10 best odds on a Rams victory.
We have to consider the 'new manager bounce' but Burton's record against the League One elite is woeful - across six trips to top-10 teams this term they have lost by an aggregate of 14-0.
The division's joint fourth worst attack is facing its joint second-best defence.
If you discount the EFL Trophy - and we should, considering the number of changes each team makes in that competition - then Burton have scored three goals in their past nine away games.
Derby's defensive record of just 11 goals conceded in 12 games at Pride Park is hugely impressive and in a game where they will almost certainly prevail it makes sense to take the even money on offer for a Rams' WIN TO NIL.
That price is a huge jump from the odds on for a Derby victory by any means and has to be snapped up.
BuildABet @35/1
- Collins to score a header
- Hourihane to score or assist
- 8+ Derby corners
- Burton most bookings
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
James Collins is Derby's top scorer and four of his 11 goals have come via his head while Conor Hourihane has been involved in four goals in his past seven appearances.
The Rams have amassed 40 corners in their past five games while Burton, with 60 yellows and three reds in 26 games, are much the likelier to incur the referee's wrath.
Score prediction: Derby 2-0 Burton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Team news
Derby have several injury issues to contend with ahead of Burton's visit, most notably veteran midfielder Craig Forsyth who missed Tuesday's EFL Trophy last-16 loss to Bradford with a calf problem and is likely to remain sidelined.
Winger Joe Ward (groin), defender Jake Rooney (ACL) and strikers Martyn Waghorn (calf) and Conor Washington (ankle) are also out while right-back Kane Wilson is also touch and go after picking up a hip injury in the midweek cup defeat.
Burton will be without striker Kwadwo Baah (hamstring), while they have let another forward, Josh Gordon, go out on loan to League Two side Walsall.
Predicted line-ups
Derby: Vickers, Bradley, Cashin, Nelson, Elder, Hourihane, Bird, Collins, Mendez-Laing, Barkhuizen, John-Jules.
Burton: Crocombe, Brayford, Hughes, Sweeney, Moon, Seddon, Oshilaja, Powell, Harper, Bennett, Lubala.
Odds correct 2000 GMT (12/01/24)
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