Football betting tips: Derby v Nottingham Forest
1pt Correct Score 1-1 at 11/2 (BetVictor)
1pt Lee Buchanan to be shown a card at 4/1 (BetVictor)
Wayne Rooney’s name will forever be written in the Premier League’s history books, but achieving a glittering playing career certainly doesn’t entitle you to managerial success.
Rooney has made a remarkable start to management, though, successfully steering Derby away from danger since his seamless transition to the dugout in November.
Derby are now eight points clear of the relegation zone, most recently adding another three to their tally with an important 2-0 win against Huddersfield.
The Rams have made consistent improvement under Rooney, although this was urgently required, with the club ranked bottom of Infogol’s expected league table having collected the fewest expected points (xP) upon his arrival.
Under Rooney’s watchful eye, Derby have now allowed an average of just 0.98 expected goals against (xGA), while conceding just 17 big chances (>35%) across his 20-game tenure.
- Big chances are opportunities with an Infogol probability of 35% or more
This defensive turnaround has been the largest contributing factor to their steady rise up the Championship, as their attacking output, averaging 1.17 expected goals for (xGF) per game, is ordinary.
Rooney’s integration of youth also deserves a notable mention, with five players aged 24-years-old or younger playing against Huddersfield.
One such player who’s made the breakthrough this season is Lee Buchanan, who Rooney recently lavished with praise, stating the youngster is one of the ‘best young left-backs in the country’.
Buchanan’s credentials should be duly tested here against Anthony Knockaert, who should prove more than a handful for the relatively inexperienced defender.
This could be a key duel towards deciding this latest renewal of the East Midlands derby, although with Buchanan already receiving six yellows this term, the 4/1 for LEE BUCHANAN TO BE SHOWN A CARD makes great appeal and it’s a bet I’m willing to side with.
Nottingham Forest have emerged with the bragging rights more often than not in this big game, and they’ll be quietly confident of delivering a strong display away at Pride Park.
Forest are another team that have been brilliant in defence since managerial change, with the club conceding an outstanding average of 0.84 xGA per game across their last 10 matches.
Their ability to limit their oppositions sights on goal under Hughton has granted them a strong defensive foundation to work from, and they’ve conceded just five across their last 10.
This emphasis on maintaining a tight back line has led to their games being low-scoring affairs, and the scoreline of 1-0 has featured in their last three consecutive games.
Considering both of these two sides’ underlying numbers, both being in a similar position in the table and the added pressure of the weight of the clash, I can only see this game developing one way.
I’m confidently predicting there won’t be much action here, and while it won’t be the most thrilling spectacle, I still believe both sides will be able to find the back of the net.
I’m interested in siding with CORRECT SCORE 1-1 at 11/2, which seems a sensible play. I'd be surprised if there's more goals than two.
Derby v Nottingham Forest score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Correct Score 1-1 at 11/2 (BetVictor)
- 1pt Lee Buchanan to be shown a card at 4/1 (General)
Score prediction: Derby 1-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (25/02/21)
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