Dale Tempest is backing the two in-form strikers to bag first in the Manchester derby, while his bet of the week comes in the Sky Bet Championship.
As golfer Gary Player used to say the harder I work the luckier I get. Football betting is no different. Backing winners and losers is what we all do but it’s that weekly grind of watching as much football as your partner will allow then doing the numbers that really pays off.
Not everyone likes statistics but they tell us so much that isn’t always obvious. I remember playing for Colchester in the late 80’s and we won nine out of 10 games and went top of League Two. Happy days.
What that didn’t tell you was that we’d won eight of those games by a single goal and we’d also had seven penalties in seven games of which Nicky Chatterton dispatched them all. The best team in the league? Definitely not, but you can guarantee we’d have been a home banker for most punters at the time.
Successful bettors use all the information available to them and weight it accordingly, but do look beyond the obvious especially when a price looks too good to be true.
Rebound with the Royals
Hull let us down last week for the bet of the week but I’m sticking with the Sky Bet Championship again this time around.
I’ve had my eye on Reading for a while as a possible improver after the appointment of Mark Bowen. An awful start saw them lose nine of their first 11 games but Bowen has refocused the squad and no longer can the Royals be regarded as a soft touch.
At the Majedski Stadium, Reading lost four of the first five games but recent victories over Preston, Millwall and Luton have redressed the home form balance and now any mid-table team down can expect a real fight on their hands when they travel to Berkshire.
In the last seven Reading games only Leeds (the best team in the Championship) and Brentford (the hottest team in the Championship) have taken the points in narrow one-goal victories.
Last week at Wigan a quick-fire second half hat-trick from Romanian Player of the Year George Puscas was enough to take the points. The 23-year-old has had a tough time since his arrival in the summer from Palermo but forwards thrive on goals and confidence so this could be the start of a better run.
That win at Wigan also came without Reading's two most creative midfield players with Ovie Ejaria and John Swift both missing the game through illness.
They should both return but one player 99% certain to miss the game is Marc Roberts for Birmingham. The Blues central defensive rock has played 18 of 19 this season but was carried off against Millwall last week with an ankle ligament injury.
That certainly won’t help newly-appointed boss Pep Clotet improve Birmingham’s poor away form. It’s now only one away victory in the last nine and with a meagre seven away goals it’s hard to see that record improving. I’m with Reading.
This week’s bets
Best Bet: 2pts Reading to beat Birmingham at 6/5
1pt - Draw in Sheff Weds v Brentford at 6/5: Nobody ever wants to back the draw but sometimes it just jumps off the page at you.
Man City v Man United: In the Manchester derby first goalscorer market, I do like to side with the in-form strikers and these two were both on fire in midweek, so it's worth a small stakes move on both.
Everton - too good to go down?
I watched Liverpool’s reserves demolish Everton on Wednesday and it was almost inevitable that Marco Silva would leave the club.
What I found incredible was the schoolboy defending of supposed top quality players. I was taught by the brilliant Terri Mancini and Ray Harford (youth team coaches at Fulham) that you can’t hold a high line if there’s no pressure on the ball or passer.
Time after time the Liverpool back four picked out Mane and Origi with simple long balls as the Toffees back line tried to hold their position.
You’d have thought they’d have eventually started tracking runners but no. It could have been ten by the time the final whistle came.
Everton are in the bottom three but still 8/1 for relegation. There are probably three worse teams than Everton in the league this year, but at the moment I’m finding it hard picking them out!
Odds correct as of 2000 GMT on 05/12/19
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