Why does nobody play the draw?
It might seem a daft question but punters just hate backing the big 'X' on the coupon. I suppose if you’re watching a game live on TV or in the stadium there’s nothing worse than hoping the ball stays in the centre circle as internal panic sets in every time the ball arrives in either box.
But I love the draw.
I focus my betting mainly on the Premier league and EFL Championship, where I can immerse myself in every bit of team data, highlights, and information available, but I regularly look at games and the draw jumps off the page as the most likely outcome despite being the biggest price of the three options.
This weekend in the Premier League is the perfect example of that.
- 13/10 Aston Villa, 13/5 draw, Southampton 15/8
- 13/10 Bournemouth, 12/5 draw, Burnley 2/1
- 23/20 Brighton, 23/10 draw, Sheffield United 12/5
- 7/5 Newcastle, 2/1 draw, Crystal Palace 11/5
All four of these games scream draw.
There’s nothing at all between Villa and Southampton, who are both on 15 points, then if you take out Sheffield United on 25 there’s four points between the other five teams. I particularly like the draw option when you take yourself out of the games involving the supposed big six (plus Leicester) and think of the team mentality outside of that.
The view within the ranks at several of these clubs will be simple: under no circumstances can we afford to lose to teams around us in the league. Simply don’t get beat. From 70 minutes on, if games are level, fewer midfielders make forward runs, players are happy staying behind the ball and late chances become minimal.
Also if a mid-table team whose only target is staying up are in front they don’t tend to think 'let's go on and knock two or three past them', it’s a case of hang onto what we’ve got and hence pressure is invited on and the chance of a late equaliser becomes increased.
In the Championship, I’m going to the standout game for a draw and that’s Huddersfield v Nottingham Forest.
Town have drawn three of their last six (two of their last three at home) while Forest have also drawn three of their last six, including two from three away. If Karlan Grant doesn’t score it really is an accident if Town get on the score sheet, and there shouldn't be much in this if the visitors can contain him in the main.
I’ll be playing the five games above in half-point doubles and trebles.
I’ve also backed Fulham +1 goal at home to Leeds this weekend. Leeds and Fulham have drawn four of their last five meetings but more importantly, Fulham have a top-quality squad and have to be backed with the full goal start.
West Brom and Leeds are the best two teams in the league, especially for consistency, but Fulham on their day can match anyone.
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