Tuesday night sees Crystal Palace welcome West Ham and Tom Carnduff is backing a Hammers player to strike at odds of 15/2.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Pablo Fornals to score anytime at 15/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Crystal Palace v West Ham
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 2
- Match odds: Home 21/10 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/10
West Ham's drive up the table has been one of the stories of the Premier League season so far. This is a club whose transfer activity at one point in the summer led some to believe that they could be among the teams battling to avoid relegation. Instead, they sit seventh with just two points separating themselves and Liverpool in fourth.
They're also on a five-game winning run in all competitions and they look good value at 13/10 to extend it to six. The Hammers face a Palace side with just one victory in their last nine outings, that came against a Sheffield United side who are now 12 points from safety at the bottom.
One positive for West Ham is the results they have seen in recent away matches. Wins at Everton and Leeds were joined by a point at then in-form Southampton; even their 3-0 loss at Chelsea flattered the home side.
Their results have been going somewhat under the radar, but a place in the top-four beyond the halfway stage will further reinforce their potential as a side capable of achieving European football.
They are boosted by the goal-scoring return of Michail Antonio, but the supporting cast have also played their part aided by the form of Tomas Soucek a little further behind. The Soucek/Declan Rice midfield combination has given the Hammers a nice balance between defence and attack with the trio in front proving to be a constant threat.
The one player who has been mentioned before in West Ham previews is Pablo Fornals, and with a goal against Doncaster in the FA Cup at the weekend, there is huge appeal in the generous 15/2 available on a goal anytime for the attacking midfielder.
Fornals dropped to the bench for the win over West Brom but we can expect a return here given the high number of starts throughout the season (17). It's something that has been discussed previously but his attacking output isn't matched by his meagre return of just two goals.
Fornals' xG of 3.8 is the fourth-highest in this West Ham side. Per game it converts to 0.25, and with Bowen at 0.23 but having five goals on his tally, we can see, so far, he just hasn't been able to convert that into goals.
His shots on target rate of 0.46 per match is beaten only by Antonio and Soucek. With more regular minutes, Soucek being a player who always plays the full 90, we would expect that figure to be higher. That would, inevitably, also bring goals.
A return to the starting XI would make the 15/2 price look far too big based on the numbers so far and the opposition. With Bowen at 16/5 and Benrahma 5/1 (both decent enough prices), the best value comes in backing Fornals to grab his first league goal since the opener in a 2-1 loss to Liverpool at Anfield in October.
Looking at the outright betting , that 13/10 on an away win will be god enough for many, and certainly well worthy of inclusion in any Tuesday accumulators.
But for a best bet in this game, the price on Fornals netting anytime is too appealing to turn down.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Crystal Palace v West Ham best bets
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (25/01/21)
Opta facts
- West Ham, who were beaten 2-1 at Selhurst Park last season, have never lost back-to-back away league matches against Crystal Palace.
- Crystal Palace have won just four of their last 22 home Premier League London derbies (D6 L12), meanwhile West Ham have that identical record in their last 22 away London derbies in the competition – W4 D6 L12.
- Since beating West Brom 5-1 at the start of December, Crystal Palace have scored just five further goals in their eight Premier League matches (W1 D4 L3), failing to score on four occasions in this run.
- West Ham are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games for the first time since December 2018, while manager David Moyes hasn’t done so in the competition since December 2013 with Manchester United.
- Crystal Palace have won none of their last 19 Premier League games against teams starting the day in the top half (D6 L13). Since beating Man Utd in September, Palace’s four wins have been against the three newly promoted teams (Fulham, Leeds, West Brom) and bottom placed Sheffield United.
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