Liam Kelly previews West Ham's televised trip to face Crystal Palace, picking a best bet and forecasting an entertaining affair at Selhurst Park.
West Ham got back on track with a 4-1 win at Watford on Tuesday (xG: WAT 1.59 - 2.78 WHU), coming from behind to claim all three points after difficult run of form.
Goals was the angle in my preview to that fixture, and it might pay to stick with a similar line of thought looking at this match-up against a Crystal Palace side that continue to impress, beating Norwich convincingly in midweek.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
The theme is West Ham's recent defensive struggles. David Moyes' side allowed 1.59 xG on 14 shots against Watford, and an average of 1.72 expected goals against (xGA) per game in the prior seven matches.
Such numbers are difficult to put right in a busy period, so it's understandable that the Hammers are leaning on their fully fit, and seemingly firing, forward line.
It does mean that opponents can have success at the opposite end, though, and Crystal Palace are a team that can take advantage, especially at Selhurst Park, where the Eagles average an extremely impressive 1.79 xGF and 0.76 xGA per game.
Although the bigger price about Palace to win in the match odds is intriguing, West Ham's current volatility puts me off. Instead, CRYSTAL PALACE to take 14+ SHOTS is the selection.
Game state is unlikely to affect the pattern of this fixture much, with West Ham mostly choosing to use attacking strength to cover up their current defensive weakness. The match should be expansive no matter what the scoreline.
The shot stats support the selection, too.
Palace are averaging 16.5 shots per game at home this term, and five of their six top shots totals have come at Selhurst Park. West Ham have allowed an average of 14.4 shots per game away from home, with this bet landing in seven of their games on the road.
Additionally, the Eagles are likely to recall Wilfried Zaha and Conor Gallagher here, key cogs in the Patrick Vieira machine.
It remains to be seen whether the French manager will be there himself, but Palace's win last time out gives us confidence that performance levels can stay high without Vieira on the touchline.
Therefore, it might pay to stay the course in fading West Ham's defence and back Palace to attempt test the opposition goal 14 or more times.
Crystal Palace v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Crystal Palace 14+ total shots at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1730 GMT (30/12/21)
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