After a two-point 6/5 winner in midweek, Jake Osgathorpe picks out two best bets for Crystal Palace v West Brom on Satutrday.
Football betting tips: Crystal Palace v West Brom
2pt West Brom Draw no Bet at 6/4 (General)
1pt Under 1.5 Goals at 15/8 (General)
Crystal Palace slumped to a heavy defeat at Tottenham last weekend, going down 4-1 in another poor performance from Roy Hodgson’s side.
Not only did they again look vulnerable at the back, but their attack looked non-existent even after the introduction of talisman Wilfried Zaha at half-time.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 23/20 | Draw 11/5 | Away 5/2
Palace attack is woeful
The underlying numbers surrounding Crystal Palace this season are generally poor, but their recent attacking performances are a huge cause for concern.
Only once in their last 15 Premier League matches have they racked up more than 1.00 expected goals for (xGF), a damning inditement on their style of play and lack of creativity.
In fact, over that period no team has averaged fewer xGF per game than Palace (0.63), with even Sheffield United being more threatening on a game by game basis (0.86).
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
So, even with Zaha, they have been extremely toothless in attack for a long time, despite Hodgson’s apparent attacking shift in starting XI and formations.
Over that 15-game stretch, no team has been worst defensively either, with Palace allowing 1.99 expected goals against (xGA) per game, with the Eagles unsurprisingly propping up Infogol’s xG table during that period.
They really are playing like a team we would expect to see in a relegation battle. Fortunately for Palace they have points on the board.
Baggies are improving
Despite remaining eight points from safety and having won just one of their last five, West Brom are trending in a positive direction under Sam Allardyce, finally.
A goalless draw with Newcastle was a huge missed opportunity, but they created enough chances to warrant the win (xG: WBA 1.87 – 0.70 NEW).
The Baggies have in fact won the xG battle in four of their last five league games, limiting their opponents to less than 1.00 xG in three of those, so the signs are there that they are improving.
Mbaye Diagne has made a huge impact to West Brom’s fortunes, but is yet to get the goals his and West Brom’s performances have deserved, netting just once from chances equating to 4.90 xG.
If he continues to keep getting in scoring positions, the goals will come his way, and he is a value bet in the goalscorer market at around 3/1 if you are that way inclined.
Value in opposing Palace
But, I am heading into the Draw no Bet market for my best bet in this game.
These two sides are on opposite trajectories, with Palace getting worst and West Brom improving, so I cannot be having the hosts around 6/5 favourites – I’d make them closer to 8/5 for this.
That means I want an improving West Brom onside. They are a tad too short for my liking in the Double Chance market at 4/6, but the 6/4 about WEST BROM DRAW NO BET catches my eye.
If there is to be a winner in this game I think it will be the Baggies, but the draw no bet gives us our money back if this finishes in a draw, which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility given the low number of goals that are expected.
Speaking of which, the price about UNDER 1.5 GOALS appeals too at around 15/8.
This has landed in three of Palace’s last four home games, and in all of West Brom’s last four fixtures, so looks a serious runner in what is likely to be a tight game.
Crystal Palace v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- West Brom Draw no Bet at 6/4 (General)
- Under 1.5 Goals at 15/8 (General)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/03/21)
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