Crystal Palace welcome champions-elect Manchester City to Selhust Park on Saturday afternoon, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, providing a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Crystal Palace v Manchester City
1pt Both Teams To Score at 5/4 (Mansion Bet, SportNation)
A win for Manchester City against Crystal Palace on Saturday afternoon will push them one step closer to a fifth Premier League title in 10 years - with a victory, along with defeat for Manchester United against Liverpool on Sunday, enough to see Pep Guardiola’s men crowned champions before the weekend is out.
The league is a formality for City now, and their chances of winning an elusive Champions League received a huge boost as they beat PSG 2-1 in Paris on Wednesday evening, a fortunate Kevin de Bruyne cross bringing them level before a Riyad Mahrez free-kick completed a famous comeback.
City looked up against it in the first half in Paris though, with Kylian Mbappe, Neymar and co really going after Guardiola’s side, but a much more aggressive second-half display earned the visitors the victory, pressing the Parisians much higher and with a lot more intensity.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, find themselves winless in three games as they welcome the champions-elect to Selhurst Park; a draw with Everton, followed by defeats to Chelsea and Leicester meaning Roy Hodgson’s side currently reside in 13th position in the league.
This is a dead rubber for Palace, who, though not yet mathematically safe, are 11 points ahead of third-bottom Fulham and in no relegation danger whatsoever.
Are Manchester City becoming more susceptible at the back?
Despite this game having the potential to seal the title for City, their focus must surely be on next week’s second leg at home to PSG, which could lead to squad rotation from Guardiola.
This could, in turn, lead to a weakening of Pep’s back-line, and while City have received plenty of praise for their defensive solidity this season, their defence has been breached with far more regularity over the past few weeks than it had in previous months.
In fact, City have kept just one clean sheet in their past seven matches, quite a downgrade considering they had previously enjoyed a total of 17 shut-outs in the Premier League this season, not to mention the six they had kept in the Champions League prior to the quarter-final stage.
This could leave the door open for Palace to nick a goal, something Hodgson’s side have done in each of their last five matches, against the likes of Tottenham, Everton, Chelsea and Leicester.
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is available at a standout price of 5/4 with a couple of bookmakers, and when we delve a little deeper into the markets, that looks to represent value.
The biggest price available for Crystal Palace to score in this match is 19/20, while the biggest price about City finding the net at least once is 1/12. Those prices multiplied comes out at 6/5; shorter than 5/4, giving us a positive expected value (EV) of just over 2%.
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected Value, or EV, is the amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet were the same bet placed over and over at the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a profit long-term, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
Also, Manchester City NOT to win to nil is roughly a 4/6 shot, and though that bet obviously returns a profit should City fail to win the match, 4/6 to 5/4 is surely too big a price swing when considering how short Guardiola’s side are to come away with all three points.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score at 5/4 (Mansion Bet, SportNation)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1215 BST (29/04/21)
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