Joe Rindl has the best bets and preview for an intriguing mid-table battle on Saturday afternoon in the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Crystal Palace v Burnley
0.5pts Burnley to win 1-0 at 8/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Crystal Palace v Burnley
- 15:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 21/10
If ever a game was destined to be shown last on Match of the Day it would be this one.
Crystal Palace come into this fixture having lost three of their past five including a drab performance in their 2-0 defeat at Leeds United last time out.
While Burnley are without a win in three Premier League games and have won just two of their past seven.
Victory would take Palace to 32 points and I still think that total is more than enough to stay up this season.
Burnley are further down the table in 17th, but Sean Dyche’s side are a comfortable eight points ahead of Fulham in the relegation places.
Both teams will rightly believe this match is there for the taking, and while I don’t predict goals, I think we’ll see a highly competitive fixture.
Neutrals may have an image of these sides being draw specialists, but that’s simply not the case. Burnley’s draw against Brighton in their last league game was the only time the points were shared in the last 10 games involving these two sides.
Burnley were unfortunate to take just a point from their game against the Seagulls with Brighton keeper Robert Sanchez having a second half to remember. They scored one, but Infogol’s expected goals (xG) model suggests they should’ve found the net 2.11 times.
And that repeated ability to create chances only to fail to put them away is replicated by the Clarets away from home. Burnley only average 0.45 goals on the road, but they’ve been expected to get almost double that total at 0.8.
I think the visitors are more than capable of finding the net at least once against a Palace side whose defensive record is the second worst in the division. Only West Brom have conceded more in the Premier League than the Eagles.
I’d look straight to an outright bet here. Burnley to win at 12/5 are brilliant odds considering how unlucky the club has been in the expected goals table plus the fact they beat Liverpool and Aston Villa as recently as last month.
The Lancashire side have a strong record against Palace, winning the last two meetings 1-0. That scoreline has 8/1 odds with Bet 365, a bet I’ll be putting my loose change on.
The price looks even better once you factor in that two of Burnley’s last three away wins have finished 1-0, including that memorable night at Anfield where they ended Liverpool's 68-game Premier League home unbeaten run.
In attack, Crystal Palace have only reached an xG of one or more once in their past 10 league games. And Roy Hodgson will also be without star player Wilfried Zaha who's still recovering from a hamstring injury.
Burnley to win to nil is 4/1 with SpreadEx if you fancy that and I wouldn't put you off but the best value is in the outright win at 12/5, with the 1-0 score worth a smaller play.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Crystal Palace v Burnley best bets
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (11/02/21)
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