Crystal Palace host Arsenal in their final home game of the season, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Premier League betting tips: Crystal Palace v Arsenal
1pt Crystal Palace to win or draw at 13/8 (Unibet)
There is little riding on this fixture in terms of league position, with Crystal Palace already safe and Arsenal’s hopes of a European finish all but over, but after Roy Hodgson’s announcement that he will leave the Eagles at the end of the season, the players will undoubtedly want to give him a big send off in his last game at Selhurst Park.
After a lackluster first half against Aston Villa at the weekend, Palace turned things around in no uncertain terms in the second period, Wilfried Zaha making it 2-2 before Tyrik Mitchell grabbed a late winner; maybe it was in his half-time team talk that Hodgson told the players he was on his way out.
Crystal Palace were deserving winners of that match, dominating possession in the second half and creating more and better opportunities than Villa, demonstrating how attack-minded they can be when the inclination strikes them.
Palace are a difficult side to predict, as their recent form figures of LWLW might imply, but despite losing four of their last six, three of those defeats came against three of the current top four, and there is a big chance that the Eagles come out firing against the Gunners.
Whatever your feelings about Mikel Arteta as a manager, there is no escaping the fact that this has been a dismal domestic season for Arsenal, with the North London club on course for their worst Premier League finish since 1994/95.
Defeat to Villarreal in the semi-final of the Europa League means the one saving grace in Arsenal’s season has quickly vanished, and the Gunners will have some serious thinking to do in the summer.
Incredibly though, Arsenal come into this game in good form, winning their last three Premier League matches, including against Chelsea last time out.
However, and this is a big however, just because Arsenal have won their last three league matches, it does not mean they are fixed. It does not mean they are ready to challenge for the top four next season. And it certainly does not mean they should be as short as they are to beat Crystal Palace.
Gunners are too short
Arsenal are 1/2 to beat Crystal Palace. That is the shortest price they have been to win an away match all season, including against all three already-relegated teams.
This is a huge overreaction to Arsenal’s recent form, and this can be easily demonstrated by looking back through the betting history books.
In 2014/15, when Arsenal finished third in the Premier League, the Gunners were 4/5 to win away at Selhust Park, and the following season, in which Arsenal finished second in the division, they could be backed at 8/11 to win away at Palace.
In fact, this is the shortest price Arsenal have been to win away at Selhurst Park since Palace’s first season back in the top flight in 2013/14.
Arsenal's price a result of the "hot hand" fallacy
The “hot hand” fallacy is the notion that because one has had a string of successes, an individual or entity is more likely to have continued success. For example, because Arsenal have won their last three Premier League matches, they are more likely to win their upcoming one.
There is an argument that “hot hand” is actually a valid notion, as form will impact a team’s future performance, but the extent is often overestimated in the prices, and that looks to be exactly what has happened here.
Arsenal should be nowhere near as short as they are to win this match, which makes backing CRYSTAL PALACE TO WIN OR DRAW a shrewd bet.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Crystal Palace to win or draw at 13/8 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct 1530 BST (18/05/21)
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